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Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 5.8T IDR (≈ $580M) · ISIN ID1000106107

What is Sampoerna Agro Tbk really worth?

SA Sampoerna Agro Tbk SGRO · JK
Price5,000 IDR
Fair Value5,829 IDR
Upside+16.6%
Quality76/100

A strong business, trading 14% below our fair value of 5,829 IDR.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.0 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range 4,372 IDR – 7,286 IDR

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +17.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

7,353 IDR 1,141 IDR Fair Value 5,829 IDR Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,141 IDR – 7,353 IDR · fair‑value band 4,372 IDR – 7,286 IDR · the 5,000 IDR price screens below the 5,829 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) currently trades at 5,000 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,829 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 9,406 IDR per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 5,000 IDR price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1,760 IDR, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sampoerna Agro Tbk generated revenue of 6.1T IDR at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue declined 23.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 97.1B IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4,372 IDR (bear case) to 7,286 IDR (bull case); at 5,000 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 17%, SGRO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 103.51 IDR per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 9,582 IDR 15,051 IDR 23,765 IDR 79
Growth DCF 9,790 IDR 14,689 IDR 22,043 IDR 78
Residual Income 2,493 IDR 2,773 IDR 4,050 IDR 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 9,582 IDR 15,051 IDR 23,765 IDR 79
Owner Earnings 3,537 IDR 5,473 IDR 8,556 IDR 75
5Y Revenue Exit 5,725 IDR 8,128 IDR 11,080 IDR 73
5Y EBITDA Exit 10,045 IDR 16,177 IDR 23,284 IDR 75
5Y P/E Exit 5,952 IDR 8,551 IDR 11,206 IDR 71
10Y Revenue Exit 6,871 IDR 9,406 IDR 12,618 IDR 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 9,802 IDR 15,111 IDR 22,114 IDR 68
10Y P/E Exit 7,137 IDR 9,705 IDR 12,716 IDR 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,887 IDR 5,748 IDR 7,628 IDR 65
Lynch FV 1,232 IDR 1,760 IDR 2,288 IDR 61
PEG = 1.0 1,232 IDR 1,760 IDR 2,288 IDR 57
EPV 7,618 IDR 8,922 IDR 10,082 IDR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3,174 IDR 6,930 IDR 11,660 IDR 65
DDM Multi-Stage 3,174 IDR 5,300 IDR 7,222 IDR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 4,372 IDR 5,829 IDR 7,286 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 3,539 IDR 4,718 IDR 5,898 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 3,539 IDR 4,718 IDR 5,898 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 12,357 IDR 16,401 IDR 20,445 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 11,520 IDR 15,284 IDR 19,049 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 3,948 IDR 5,543 IDR 7,138 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1,385 IDR 1,857 IDR 2,771 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 9,790 IDR 14,689 IDR 22,043 IDR 78
Rev-Margin DCF 5,725 IDR 8,234 IDR 11,143 IDR 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income 2,493 IDR 2,773 IDR 4,050 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 8,111 IDR 10,159 IDR 12,475 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 3,588 IDR 5,125 IDR 6,663 IDR 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (9,406 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (1,760 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 32.7
P/S ratio 2.56 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 152.99 IDR price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.7
Dividend yield 12.0%
Net margin 7.8% FY2025
Return on equity 4.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 6.1T IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −23.1% 3y avg +4.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −62.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 1.4T IDR FY2025
Net debt 97.1B IDR FY2025 · ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 76/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 90
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates palm oil and rubber plantations, and palm oil mills in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Products and Others segments. The company offers crude palm oil, palm kernel, and oil palm seeds, as well as non-palm products, such as rubber and sago starch.

Full company description

PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates palm oil and rubber plantations, and palm oil mills in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Products and Others segments. The company offers crude palm oil, palm kernel, and oil palm seeds, as well as non-palm products, such as rubber and sago starch. It also engages in the utilization of forestry products; provision of management consultation service; production of germinated seeds; and wholesale trade activities. In addition, the company develops plasma plantations and manages cooperation with plasma farmers. Further, it produces and sells its oil palm seeds under the DxP Sriwijaya brand name. PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk was formerly known as PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk and changed its name to PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk in January 2026. PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Palembang, Indonesia. As of November 19, 2025, PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk operates as a subsidiary of AGPA PTE. LTD.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sampoerna Agro Tbk reported revenue of 6.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 5.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 505B IDR in FY2025, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
6.4T IDR
Latest YoY
+13.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in IDR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.9% (3.9 + 12.0)
Revenue +5.4%/yr
FY21 5.2T IDR
FY22 5.7T IDR
FY23 5.6T IDR
FY24 5.7T IDR
FY25 6.4T IDR
Net income −10.9%/yr
FY21 802B IDR
FY22 1.0T IDR
FY23 484B IDR
FY24 749B IDR
FY25 505B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.9 %

of which total revenue +7.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %

EBIT margin +3.2 %
Tax rate −4.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Sampoerna Agro Tbk · Fair Value
5,829 IDR +14%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sampoerna Agro Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGRO

Peer Group

Farm Products · 293 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth −23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 12.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.49× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.15× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.62× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE55 · sector 25
FUTURE0 · sector 21
PAST19 · sector 19
HEALTH75 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM $81.54 $38.02 −53%
Muyuan Foods Group 002714 ¥40.15 ¥47.42 +18%
Bunge Global SA BG $111.57 $56.19 −50%
Tyson Foods, Inc TSN $55.40 $28.60 −48%
Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 ¥13.80 ¥11.18 −19%
Mowi ASA MOWI kr 201.80 kr 256.14 +27%
Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 ¥201.06 ¥143.09 −29%
United Plantations Berhad 2089 32.60 MYR 23.34 MYR −28%
Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF 23.40 THB 43.24 THB +85%
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN 2,960 IDR 6,818 IDR +130%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5,829 IDR versus a price of 5,000 IDR, about +17% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGRO?
Our model-based fair value for Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 5,829 IDR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5,000 IDR.
What is the quality score of SGRO?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SGRO?
The net profit margin of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sampoerna Agro Tbk pay a dividend?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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