Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $39.7B · ISIN US0394831020
What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company really worth?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM · US
A solid business, but trading 72% above our fair value of $49.20.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $38.02 to $49.20 (+29.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($61.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.10 – $87.44 · fair‑value band $36.90 – $61.50 · the $84.38 price screens above the $49.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) currently trades at $84.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $49.20, implying the stock looks roughly 71.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $67.18 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the $84.38 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $14.95, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generated revenue of $80.6B at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at $7.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.90 (bear case) to $61.50 (bull case); at $84.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −42%, ADM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1286 per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($67.18) versus Earnings-Based ($14.95). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition.
Full company description
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company provides human and animal nutrition ingredients and solutions in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company engages in the origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of agricultural raw materials, as well as the crushing and processing of oilseeds, including soybeans and soft seeds, such as cottonseed, sunflower seed, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed; produces and markets vegetable oils and oilseed protein meals used by food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; sale of crude and partially refined vegetable oils; supplies peanuts and peanut-derived ingredients; and manufactures cotton cellulose pulp. It is also involved in the grain sourcing, handling, and multimodal transportation network supporting import, export, and distribution activities; structured trade finance activities; corn and wheat wet and dry milling and related processing activities; production of distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, and corn gluten meal for use as animal feed ingredients; and carbon capture and sequestration and other emissions-reduction initiatives. In addition, the company engages in the creation, manufacturing, sale, and distribution of an array of ingredients and solutions comprising plant-based proteins, flavors and colors derived from nature, flavor systems, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, botanical extracts, and other specialty food and feed ingredients and systems. Further, it is involved in the derivatives and commodity exchanges and clearing houses; and insurance coverage for certain property, casualty, marine, medical, and other miscellaneous risks. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company reported revenue of $80.3B in FY2025 versus $85.2B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −20.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ADM screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Muyuan Foods Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Surging Earnings Estimates Signal Upside for ADM (ADM) Stock
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Bets Big On Oilseed Crush Capacity
Peer Group
Farm Products · 293 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Muyuan Foods Group 002714 | ¥40.15 | ¥47.42 | +18% |
| Bunge Global SA BG | $111.57 | $56.19 | −50% |
| Tyson Foods, Inc TSN | $55.40 | $28.60 | −48% |
| Wens Foodstuff Group 300498 | ¥13.80 | ¥11.18 | −19% |
| Mowi ASA MOWI | kr 201.80 | kr 256.14 | +27% |
| Fujian Wanchen Food Group 300972 | ¥201.06 | ¥143.09 | −29% |
| United Plantations Berhad 2089 | 32.60 MYR | 23.34 MYR | −28% |
| Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company CPF | 23.40 THB | 43.24 THB | +85% |
| PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk, CPIN | 2,960 IDR | 6,818 IDR | +130% |
| L.D.C. S.A LOUP | €112.20 | €184.99 | +65% |
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