Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.3B · ISIN IL0011858912
What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. really worth?
Pagaya Technologies Ltd.
PGY · US
A solid business, trading 15% below our fair value of $27.06.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +4.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.88 – $359.40 · fair‑value band $20.30 – $33.82 · the $22.89 price screens below the $27.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) currently trades at $22.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.06, implying the stock looks roughly 15.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $57.46 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $22.89 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.49, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Pagaya Technologies Ltd. generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 9.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $634M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.30 (bear case) to $33.82 (bull case); at $22.89, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 18%, PGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7610 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($57.46) versus Economic Profit ($0.1500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands.
Full company description
Pagaya Technologies Ltd., a product-focused technology company, deploys data science and proprietary artificial intelligence-powered technology for financial services, their customers, and institutional or sophisticated investors in the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. The company offers Decline Monetization, the flagship product which allows Partners to automatically send rejected loan applications to its network, as well as approve customers they would otherwise decline; Dual Look which allows to assess applications concurrently with its Partners in real time; and First Look that routes designated segments of loan applications to the network for evaluation.It also provides Affiliate Optimizer Engine, a customer acquisition tool which enables Partners to originate loans through third-party affiliate channels; Direct Marketing Engine, that utilizes data network to help Partners target and acquire new customers through direct channels; and FastPass which accelerates the transaction process. Its partners include financial technology companies, incumbent banks and financial institutions, auto finance providers, and residential real estate service providers. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $446M in FY2021, a compound +29.7%/yr. Reported net income was $81.4M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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