Orsted A/S (ORSTED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Orsted A/S is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Below-average quality, and trading another 408% above our fair value of kr 26.69.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Orsted A/S is kr 26.69 per share against a price of kr 135.60, so the fair value sits 80% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 3 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 6 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange kr 20.02 to kr 33.36
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −5.4% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 33.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 99.54 – kr 561.37 · fair‑value band kr 20.02 – kr 33.36 · the kr 135.60 price screens above the kr 26.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Orsted A/S (ORSTED) currently trades at kr 135.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 26.69, implying the stock looks roughly 408.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of kr 60.72 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the kr 135.60 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 7.48, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Orsted A/S generated revenue of 80.2B DKK at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 33.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. Net debt stands at 78.8B DKK. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: kr 20.02 (bear) to kr 33.36 (bull), the price of kr 135.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −80%, ORSTED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (kr 7.48 to kr 60.72). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidencekr 63.78kr 60.49kr 47.7176
Growth-Adj P/Ekr 20.04kr 28.63kr 37.2367
Gordon GGMkr 4.77kr 9.93kr 15.7566
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Doddkr 12.56kr 34.35kr 45.0565
Lynch FVkr 6.80kr 9.72kr 12.6361
PEG = 1.0kr 6.80kr 9.72kr 12.6357
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMkr 4.77kr 9.93kr 15.7566
DDM Multi-Stagekr 4.77kr 7.48kr 10.3566
Multiples
P/E Multiplekr 24.93kr 33.25kr 41.5663
P/S Multiplekr 23.55kr 31.40kr 39.2558
P/B Multiplekr 23.55kr 31.40kr 39.2555
EV/EBITDAkr 26.13kr 42.18kr 58.2266
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)kr 45.31kr 60.72kr 90.6254
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidencekr 63.78kr 60.49kr 47.7176
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/Ekr 20.04kr 28.63kr 37.2367
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (kr 60.72) versus Dividend Discount (kr 7.48). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio2.47TTM
EPS (TTM)kr −2.40
Dividend yield0.3%
Net margin3.8%FY2025
Return on equity0.7%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)0.5%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin25.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)80.2B DKKTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+33.4%3y avg −20.4%
EPS growth (YoY)−84.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−31.7B DKKFY2025
Net debt78.8B DKKFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality27/100
Of which business quality 30
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Profitability14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments.
Full company description
Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments. The Offshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore wind farms in Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. The Onshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates onshore wind and solar farms in the United States, including integrated storage. The Bioenergy & Other segment generates heat and power and offers ancillary services from CHP plants in Denmark; and optimizes its gas portfolio, as well as manages its Danish and Swedish B2B business. The company was formerly known as DONG Energy A/S and changed its name to Ørsted A/S in November 2017. Ørsted A/S was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Fredericia, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Orsted A/S reported revenue of 63.6B DKK in FY2025 versus 69.1B DKK in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B DKK in FY2025, compounding −31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
63.6B DKK
Latest YoY
+8.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−20.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−40.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−41.1%
Dividend yield0.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −41.1% vs 10Y −20.9%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24.3% (2020) → −2.7% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop496% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in DKK
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 0
FUTURE100· sector 0
PAST3· sector 14
HEALTH64· sector 67
DIVIDEND6· sector 42
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
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As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 26.69 versus a price of kr 135.60, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORSTED?
Our model-based fair value for Orsted A/S is kr 26.69 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 135.60.
What is the quality score of ORSTED?
Orsted A/S has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 26.69 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 20.02, optimistic scenario kr 33.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orsted A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 26.69, about −80% upside versus a price of kr 135.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 20.02, optimistic scenario kr 33.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Orsted A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 80.2B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ORSTED?
The net profit margin of Orsted A/S is about 0.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Orsted A/S pay a dividend?
Orsted A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orsted A/S it is kr 26.69 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of kr 135.60. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orsted A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, ORSTED trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 135.60, fair value kr 26.69, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORSTED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 135.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 26.69). For Orsted A/S the two are kr 108.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orsted A/S worth?
The market values Orsted A/S at about 198B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is kr 135.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 26.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORSTED?
Our models span a range for Orsted A/S: cautious scenario kr 20.02, base kr 26.69, optimistic kr 33.36 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price kr 135.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ORSTED?
The PEG ratio of Orsted A/S is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orsted A/S (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity 0.7%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORSTED from its 52-week high?
Orsted A/S trades at kr 135.60, about 26% below its 52-week high of kr 182.02 and 41% above the low of kr 96.38 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 26.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orsted A/S?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, AXIA Energia SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orsted A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price kr 135.60, calculated fair value kr 26.69 (−80%), Quality Score 27/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORSTED calculated?
We run Orsted A/S through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 26.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Orsted A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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