Orsted A/S (ORSTED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orsted A/S stock DKK 33.25, price DKK 130, upside -74.4%, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 99.54 – kr 561.37 · fair‑value band kr 24.93 – kr 41.56 · the kr 129.85 price screens above the kr 33.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Ørsted A/S, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore and onshore wind farms, solar farms, and energy storage and combined heat and power (CHP) plants. It operates through Offshore, Onshore, and Bioenergy & Other segments.
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The Offshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates offshore wind farms in Europe, the United States, and the Asia-Pacific region. The Onshore segment owns, develops, constructs, and operates onshore wind and solar farms in the United States, including integrated storage.
The Bioenergy & Other segment generates heat and power and offers ancillary services from CHP plants in Denmark; and optimizes its gas portfolio, as well as manages its Danish and Swedish B2B business.
The company was formerly known as DONG Energy A/S and changed its name to Ørsted A/S in November 2017. Ørsted A/S was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Fredericia, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Orsted A/S (ORSTED) currently trades at kr 129.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 33.25, 74.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of kr 62.94 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the kr 129.85 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 6.56, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 24.93 (bear) to kr 41.56 (bull), the price of kr 129.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orsted A/S reported revenue of 63.6B DKK in FY2025 versus 69.1B DKK in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B DKK in FY2025, compounding −31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 172B DKK (≈ $25.7B) Large · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) kr −14.00 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity −1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −74%, ORSTED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (kr 3.49 to kr 162.09). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bearkr 24.93Fair Value kr 33.25Bullkr 41.56
Price kr 129.85 · Upside -74.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−20.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−40.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−41.1% vs −20.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → −3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of durable advantage pairs with weak margins and very negative cash flow that pressure operations.
Main risk: Risks in completing large offshore wind builds would hit results and already strained cash flows.
Ørsted has begun offshore installation of the first monopile foundations for the 1.5 GW Baltica 2 project off Poland with partner PGE, advancing one of its major construction efforts. The company continues to prioritize offshore wind while divesting onshore assets to sharpen that focus. Will successful delivery of these builds improve operational resilience more than ongoing project risks weigh on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−74.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.73× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.43× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.66× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA10.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG0.50× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orsted A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORSTED
Frequently asked questions
Is Orsted A/S (ORSTED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 33.25 versus a price of kr 129.85, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORSTED?
Our model-based fair value for Orsted A/S is kr 33.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 129.85.
What is the quality score of ORSTED?
Orsted A/S has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 33.25 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 24.93, optimistic scenario kr 41.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orsted A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 33.25, about −74% upside versus a price of kr 129.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 24.93, optimistic scenario kr 41.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Orsted A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 83.7B DKK (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Orsted A/S pay a dividend?
Orsted A/S currently shows a dividend yield of 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orsted A/S it is kr 33.25 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of kr 129.85. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orsted A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, ORSTED trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 129.85, fair value kr 33.25, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORSTED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 129.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 33.25). For Orsted A/S the two are kr 96.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orsted A/S worth?
The market values Orsted A/S at about 172B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is kr 129.85; our models calculate a fair value of kr 33.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORSTED?
Our models span a range for Orsted A/S: cautious scenario kr 24.93, base kr 33.25, optimistic kr 41.56 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price kr 129.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ORSTED?
The PEG ratio of Orsted A/S is 0.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orsted A/S (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −1.4%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORSTED from its 52-week high?
Orsted A/S trades at kr 129.85, about 24% below its 52-week high of kr 170.35 and 15% above the low of kr 113.10 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 33.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orsted A/S?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orsted A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price kr 129.85, calculated fair value kr 33.25 (−74%), Quality Score 33/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORSTED calculated?
We run Orsted A/S through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 33.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Orsted A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was kr 129.85. Our model-based fair value is kr 33.25, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orsted A/S right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 41.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Orsted A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The market capitalisation of Orsted A/S is 172B DKK (≈ $25.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orsted A/S is 2.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Earnings per share at Orsted A/S are kr −14.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The dividend yield of Orsted A/S is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The net margin of Orsted A/S is 3.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orsted A/S is −1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orsted A/S is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
The operating margin of Orsted A/S is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Revenue at Orsted A/S is growing +20.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −20.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orsted A/S (ORSTED)?
Earnings per share at Orsted A/S are growing −94.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orsted A/S (ORSTED) generate?
The free cash flow of Orsted A/S is −31.7B DKK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orsted A/S (ORSTED) carry?
The net debt of Orsted A/S is 78.8B DKK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 22, 2026