Fortum Oyj (FORTUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · FI · Market cap €17.8B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €13.90 to €13.55 (−2.5%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −2.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€17.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€8.41 to €17.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.86 – €22.63 · fair‑value band €8.41 – €17.38 · the €19.80 price screens above the €13.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Fortum Oyj (FORTUM) currently trades at €19.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €13.55, implying the stock looks roughly 31.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Fortum Oyj generated revenue of €5.3B at a net margin of 15.4%. Revenue grew 21.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. Net debt stands at €1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.41 (bear case) to €17.38 (bull case); at €19.80, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -32%, FORTUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€22.53) versus Asset-Based (€6.38). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments.
Full company description
Fortum Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation and sale of electricity and heat to private and business customers in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Poland, and internationally. It operates through Generation, Consumer Solutions, and Other Operations segments. The Generation segment offers low-carbon hydro, nuclear, onshore wind, and solar power generation; district heating and cooling; and decarbonization services. The Consumer Solutions segment offers invoicing and customer services; electricity and related value-added products; and digital services for consumers, including small- and medium-sized enterprises. It is also involved in the electricity and gas retail business; power trading and energy supply services; industrial site development; and battery recycling activities. The company was formerly known as IVO-Neste Yhtymä Oyj and changed its name to Fortum Oyj in June 1998. Fortum Oyj was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fortum Oyj reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €112B in FY2021, a compound −54.1%/yr. Reported net income was €765M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +2.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FORTUM screens 32% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Fortum Oyj (FOJCF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Market Volatility and ...
- Why Fortum Oyj’s (FOJCY) Battery Recycling Exposure Still Rests on a Diversified Utility Balance Sheet
- Fortum Oyj (FOJCF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Market Prices and Strategic Growth Plans
- Is Fortum Oyj (HLSE:FORTUM) Still Attractive After Strong Multi Year Share Price Gains
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥28.02 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 148.25 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.69 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | -87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.54 | -11% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €56.80 | €66.19 | +17% |
| BEP BEP | $34.23 | $70.40 | +106% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | -53% |
| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥13.95 | ¥16.63 | +19% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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