Origin Energy Limited (ORG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$18.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$10.36 to A$7.70 (−25.7%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +13.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 35% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$9.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.10 – A$12.79 · fair‑value band A$5.78 – A$9.63 · the A$11.86 price screens above the A$7.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Origin Energy Limited (ORG) currently trades at A$11.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.70, implying the stock looks roughly 35.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Origin Energy Limited generated revenue of A$16.5B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at A$4.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$5.78 (bear case) to A$9.63 (bull case); at A$11.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -35%, ORG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$11.38) versus DCF Models (A$2.85). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments.
Full company description
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Origin Energy Limited reported revenue of A$17.1B in FY2025 versus A$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.5B in FY2025.
ORG screens 35% overvalued. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Landis+Gyr Deepens Gas Metering Shift With Origin And New York Win
- Origin Energy and Landis+Gyr bring large-scale smart gas technology to Australian homes and businesses
- Origin Energy Flags Lower LNG Revenue and Cuts Octopus Earnings Outlook
- Institutions own 44% of Origin Energy Limited (ASX:ORG) shares but individual investors control 55% of the company
Peer Group
Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €20.30 | €8.45 | -58% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €9.72 | €4.82 | -50% |
| Engie SA 1ENGI | €25.96 | €17.39 | -33% |
| Sempra SRE | $85.92 | $44.47 | -48% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €18.42 | €11.71 | -36% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €59.36 | €29.64 | -50% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 184.00 SAR | 24.19 SAR | -87% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$54.99 | C$34.34 | -38% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €68.60 | €21.11 | -69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.47 | €3.81 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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