Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · IN · Market cap ₹3.1T
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ₹490.40 to ₹344.31 (−29.8%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −4.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 46% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹251.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹75.09 – ₹307.87 · fair‑value band ₹251.79 – ₹430.39 · the ₹236.40 price screens below the ₹344.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) currently trades at ₹236.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹344.31, implying the stock looks roughly 45.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation generated revenue of ₹6.6T at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at ₹1.4T. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹251.79 (bear case) to ₹430.39 (bull case); at ₹236.40, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 46%, ONGC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (₹881.18) versus Asset-Based (₹198.00). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products in India and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining & Marketing, and Petrochemicals segments.
Full company description
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and value-added products in India and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production, Refining & Marketing, and Petrochemicals segments. The company engages in the refining and marketing of petroleum products; liquefied natural gas supply; pipelines for transportation of petroleum products; SEZ development; helicopter services; and production of ethanol, sugar, petrochemicals, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, ethane, propane, butane, kerosene oil, low sulphur heavy stock, residual crude oil, mineral turpentine oil, aviation turbine fuel, and high speed diesel. It also generates wind power through a total installed capacity of 153.9 MW; and solar power through a total installed capacity of 39.96 MW. The company also exports its products. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited was founded in 1955 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation reported revenue of ₹6.6T in FY2026 versus ₹4.9T in FY2022, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹414B in FY2026, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +14.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ONGC awards offshore contracts to L&T Energy Hydrocarbon Offshore
- India Expands Strategic Oil Reserves With New ONGC Storage Plan
- BP (LSE:BP) Reshuffles Leadership And Expands ONGC Partnership In India
- How The Investment Story For Oil And Natural Gas (NSEI:ONGC) Is Quietly Shifting
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $159.80 | $88.98 | -44% |
| Chevron Corporation CHEV | C$23.84 | C$8.30 | -65% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.66 | ¥15.47 | +45% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €39.04 | €46.09 | +18% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$14.29 | C$8.20 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBRN | 314.50 MXN | 1,240 MXN | +294% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $42.93 | $8.99 | -79% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.05 | ¥3.67 | -27% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $40.93 | $34.53 | -16% |
| Suncor Energy Inc SU | C$88.25 | C$59.11 | -33% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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