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Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 1.4B GBX · ISIN GB00B3MBS747

What is Ocado Group PLC really worth?

OG Ocado Group PLC OCDO · LSE
Price£2.16
Fair Value£3.01
Upside+39.1%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, trading 28% below our fair value of £3.01.

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Strengths

generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.9 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -14.3% net margin · fiscal year 2025 29.3%
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range £2.66 – £3.90

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £3.11 to £3.01 (−3.2%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +2.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£2.66). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£20.90 £1.59 Fair Value £3.01 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.59 – £20.90 · fair‑value band £2.66 – £3.90 · the £2.16 price screens below the £3.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) currently trades at £2.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.01, implying the stock looks roughly 28.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £9.81 per share, and 19 of the 21 models we run sit above the £2.16 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.26, and 2 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ocado Group PLC generated revenue of £1.4B at a net margin of 29.3%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −28.7%. Net debt stands at £1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £2.66 (bear case) to £3.90 (bull case); at £2.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 39%, OCDO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence £2.66 £3.53 £4.74 79
Growth DCF £2.66 £3.40 £4.36 77
Owner Earnings £7.37 £10.58 £15.00 74
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence £2.66 £3.53 £4.74 79
Owner Earnings £7.37 £10.58 £15.00 74
5Y Revenue Exit £2.39 £3.22 £4.27 71
5Y EBITDA Exit £2.65 £3.72 £4.97 73
5Y P/E Exit £5.92 £9.97 £14.34 67
10Y Revenue Exit £2.44 £3.19 £4.20 65
10Y EBITDA Exit £2.63 £3.51 £4.69 67
10Y P/E Exit £4.55 £7.52 £11.36 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £3.31 £11.48 £15.43 64
Lynch FV £2.66 £3.80 £4.95 61
PEG = 1.0 £2.66 £3.80 £4.95 57
Multiples
P/E Multiple £8.03 £10.70 £13.38 63
P/S Multiple £1.49 £1.99 £2.49 58
P/B Multiple £5.62 £7.50 £9.37 55
EV/EBITDA £2.86 £3.52 £4.18 64
EV/Revenue £2.28 £2.88 £3.48 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.9400 £1.26 £1.87 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £2.66 £3.40 £4.36 77
Rev-Margin DCF £2.39 £3.23 £4.22 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income £2.76 £3.74 £16.85 58
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £6.86 £9.81 £12.75 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£9.81) versus Asset-Based (£1.26). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.79 TTM
EPS (TTM) £−0.3000
Net margin 29.3% FY2025
Return on equity −15.0% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −7.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.9% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) £1.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +53.9% 3y avg −18.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 153M GBX FY2025
Net debt 1.3B GBX FY2025 · ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments.

Full company description

Ocado Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online grocery retailer in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through Technology Solutions and Logistics segments. It provides end-to-end online retail and automated storage and retrieval solutions for general merchandise to corporate customers; and Ocado Intelligent Automation that provides automation solutions to sectors outside of grocery retail. The company also provides third-party logistics services through Ocado storage and retrieval system. Ocado Group plc was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Hatfield, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ocado Group PLC reported revenue of 1.4B GBX in FY2025 versus 2.5B GBX in FY2021, a compound −13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 405M GBX in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£1.4B
Latest YoY
+13.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−18.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Revenue −13.8%/yr
FY21 2.5B GBX
FY22 2.5B GBX
FY23 2.8B GBX
FY24 1.2B GBX
FY25 1.4B GBX
Net income
FY21 −223M GBX
FY22 −456M GBX
FY23 −314M GBX
FY24 −336M GBX
FY25 405M GBX

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ocado Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OCDO

Peer Group

Grocery Stores · 77 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +39% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 54% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.07× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE85 · sector 40
FUTURE100 · sector 17
PAST0 · sector 50
HEALTH0 · sector 92
DIVIDEND0 · sector 52

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Loblaw Companies Limited L C$60.79 C$44.44 −27%
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD €30.57 €53.50 +75%
The Kroger Co KR $57.72 $28.19 −51%
Woolworths Group WOW A$40.32 A$8.33 −79%
George Weston Limited WN C$98.50 C$147.70 +50%
Metro Inc MRU C$88.26 C$94.01 +7%
Carrefour SA CA €15.63 €11.19 −28%
CP ALL Public Company TCPD 1.81 SGD 2.35 SGD +30%
BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS 418.25 TRY 267.12 TRY −36%
Kesko Oyj KESKOA €21.25 €11.62 −45%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ocado Group PLC (OCDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.01 versus a price of £2.16, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OCDO?
Our model-based fair value for Ocado Group PLC is £3.01 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.16.
What is the quality score of OCDO?
Ocado Group PLC has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ocado Group PLC (OCDO)?
Ocado Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OCDO?
The net profit margin of Ocado Group PLC is about 29.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 29.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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