Carrefour SA (CA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · FR · Market cap €11.8B · ISIN FR0000120172
What is Carrefour SA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 47% above our fair value of €11.19.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€11.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The models converge in a tight band (€11.19 to €11.84), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.83 – €16.79 · fair‑value band €11.19 – €11.84 · the €16.41 price screens above the €11.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Carrefour SA (CA) currently trades at €16.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.19, implying the stock looks roughly 46.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €68.53 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the €16.41 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €9.47, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Carrefour SA generated revenue of €83.8B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at €19.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €11.19 (bear case) to €11.84 (bull case); at €16.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −32%, CA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1631 per share, which is 1.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€68.53) versus Multiples (€9.47). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites.
Full company description
Carrefour SA operates as a food retailer in France, Spain, Belgium, Poland, Romania, Brazil, Argentina, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and internationally. The company operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience stores, club stores, and cash and carry stores; soft discount stores; and e-commerce sites. It is also involved in the provision of financial services; banking and insurance services; property development; travel ticketing and leisure; agency; shopping mall rental; and franchise activities. Carrefour SA was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Massy, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Carrefour SA reported revenue of €84.0B in FY2025 versus €71.8B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €319M in FY2025, compounding −26.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CA screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Carrefour (CRERF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Strategic Advances
- Carrefour H1 sales rise, earnings climb 18%
- France Licensing Day Returns 30 June, Featuring Global Brands and Exclusive Carrefour Keynote
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$60.79 | C$44.44 | −27% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €30.57 | €53.50 | +75% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $57.72 | $28.19 | −51% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$40.32 | A$8.33 | −79% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$98.50 | C$147.70 | +50% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$88.26 | C$94.01 | +7% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.81 SGD | 2.35 SGD | +30% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 418.25 TRY | 267.12 TRY | −36% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOA | €21.25 | €11.62 | −45% |
| President Chain Store Corporation 2912 | 219.50 TWD | 183.31 TWD | −16% |
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