Kroger Company (KR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $35.9B · ISIN US5010441013
What is Kroger Company really worth?
Kroger Company
KR · US
A solid business, but trading 15% above our fair value of $50.74.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $28.19 to $50.74 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +1.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.17 – $75.20 · fair‑value band $38.05 – $63.43 · the $58.51 price screens above the $50.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Kroger Company (KR) currently trades at $58.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.74, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $40.03 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $58.51 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.48, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kroger Company generated revenue of $148B at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.4%. Net debt stands at $21.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.05 (bear case) to $63.43 (bull case); at $58.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −13%, KR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1011 per share, which is 0.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($40.03) versus Asset-Based ($6.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses.
Full company description
The Kroger Co. operates as a food and drug retailer in the United States. The company operates combination food and drug stores, multi-department stores, marketplace stores, and price impact warehouses. Its combination food and drug stores offer natural food and organic sections, pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce; and its multi-department stores provide apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living, electronics, automotive products, and toys. The company's marketplace stores offer full-service grocery, pharmacy, health and beauty care, and perishable goods, as well as general merchandise, including apparel, home goods, and toys; and its price impact warehouse stores provide grocery, and health and beauty care items, as well as meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce items. It also manufactures and processes food products for sale in its supermarkets and online; and sells fuel through its fuel centers. The company sells its products through its stores, fuel centers, and online platforms. The Kroger Co. was founded in 1883 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Kroger Company reported revenue of $148B in FY2026 versus $138B in FY2022, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2026, compounding −11.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +3.2 % · buybacks/dilution +3.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
KR screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kroger Could Miss Quarterly Identical Sales Views Amid Challenging Grocery Backdrop, Oppenheimer Says
- 3 Reasons to Sell KR and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Kroger (KR) Taps Mark Ibbotson To Help Drive Its Store And Digital Shift
- Kroger (KR) Stock Looks Fair On Earnings While Returns Stay Strong
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$60.79 | C$44.44 | −27% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €30.57 | €53.50 | +75% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$40.32 | A$8.33 | −79% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$98.50 | C$147.70 | +50% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$88.26 | C$94.01 | +7% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.63 | €11.19 | −28% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.81 SGD | 2.35 SGD | +30% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 418.25 TRY | 267.12 TRY | −36% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOA | €21.25 | €11.62 | −45% |
| President Chain Store Corporation 2912 | 219.50 TWD | 183.31 TWD | −16% |
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