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Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc (NXST) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · US · Market cap $5.7B · ISIN US65336K1034

What is Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc really worth?

NB Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc logo Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc NXST · US
Price$177.67
Fair Value$151.97
Upside−14.5%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 17% above our fair value of $151.97.

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Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Moderate moat 47/100
!The models disagree: range $58.89 to $262.18
!Weak on valuation: 14 out of 100
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100

For context

·4.19% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $58.89 – $262.18

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −9.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($58.89 to $262.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$251.25 $116.27 Fair Value $151.97 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $116.27 – $251.25 · fair‑value band $58.89 – $262.18 · the $177.67 price screens above the $151.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc (NXST) currently trades at $177.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $151.97, implying the stock looks roughly 16.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $324.15 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $177.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $45.28, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at $6.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $58.89 (bear case) to $262.18 (bull case); at $177.67, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −14%, NXST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $52.02 $53.27 $51.63 76
Growth DCF $121.95 $419.63 $866.22 72
FCF DCF $130.80 $401.22 $1,018 71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $130.80 $401.22 $1,018 71
Owner Earnings $47.60 $280.81 $707.57 66
5Y Revenue Exit $86.03 $324.15 $660.29 66
5Y EBITDA Exit $185.16 $542.32 $1,014 70
5Y P/E Exit — $15.79 $93.59 68
10Y Revenue Exit $89.07 $324.42 $714.20 60
10Y EBITDA Exit $164.26 $486.76 $1,023 62
10Y P/E Exit $4.84 $94.98 $219.61 56
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $24.27 $138.76 $192.92 63
Lynch FV $39.05 $55.79 $72.52 61
PEG = 1.0 $39.05 $55.79 $72.52 57
EPV $36.64 $73.15 $104.64 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $48.60 $96.84 $146.65 67
DDM Multi-Stage $48.60 $83.69 $102.23 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $58.89 $78.52 $98.15 63
P/S Multiple $45.51 $60.68 $75.85 58
P/B Multiple $45.51 $60.68 $75.85 55
EV/EBIT $144.54 $257.57 $370.61 63
EV/EBITDA $234.23 $377.16 $520.09 66
EV/Revenue $62.59 $172.80 $283.01 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $33.79 $45.28 $67.59 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $121.95 $419.63 $866.22 72
Rev-Margin DCF $86.03 $315.32 $632.90 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $52.02 $53.27 $51.63 76
ROIC Compounder $36.64 $81.07 $161.34 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $59.32 $84.74 $110.16 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($324.15) versus Asset-Based ($45.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 37.6
P/S ratio 0.83 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $4.72 price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.6
Dividend yield 4.2% payout 158%
Net margin 2.2% FY2025
Return on equity 6.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 22.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $5.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.1% 3y avg −1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +51.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $743M FY2025
Net debt $6.6B FY2025 · ≈ 8.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 8
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates as a diversified media company that produces and distributes local and national news, sports, and entertainment contents on the television and digital platforms in the United States.

Full company description

Nexstar Media Group, Inc. operates as a diversified media company that produces and distributes local and national news, sports, and entertainment contents on the television and digital platforms in the United States. It owns, operates, programs, or provides sales and other services to power television and radio stations; and provides television programming services. The company offers video and display advertising platforms through its own and various third party websites, mobile and over-the-top applications, digital media solutions to media publishers and advertisers, and a consumer product reviews platform. In addition, it owns NewsNation, a national cable news network; and WGN-AM, a Chicago radio station, as well as owns and operates digital multicast networks. Further, its digital assets include 125 local websites, 229 mobile applications, 110 connected television applications, television channels from The CW and The Hill, BestReviews, and advertising solutions. Additionally, the company engages in the digital business. Its stations are affiliates of ABC, NBC, FOX, CBS, The CW, MyNetworkTV, and other broadcast television networks. Nexstar Media Group, Inc. was formerly known as Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. and changed its name to Nexstar Media Group, Inc. in January 2017. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $109M in FY2025, compounding −39.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$4.9B
Latest YoY
−8.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.3% (−0.9 + 4.2)
Revenue +1.6%/yr
FY21 $4.6B
FY22 $5.2B
FY23 $4.9B
FY24 $5.4B
FY25 $4.9B
Net income −39.9%/yr
FY21 $834M
FY22 $971M
FY23 $346M
FY24 $722M
FY25 $109M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +19.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +21.1 %

of which total revenue +21.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %

EBIT margin −3.4 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

NXST screens 17% overvalued. Compare with PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NXST

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Broadcasting · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −15% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 3.02× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.74× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 8.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.17× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE14 · sector 52
FUTURE66 · sector 0
PAST26 · sector 2
HEALTH0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND84 · sector 84

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Broadcasting stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, EMTK 500.00 IDR 1,094 IDR +119%
MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V MFEB €3.62 €5.38 +49%
Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation 600959 ¥3.10 ¥1.14 −63%
Sun TV Network Limited SUNTV ₹487.90 ₹586.58 +20%
MBC Group 4072 20.41 SAR 19.24 SAR −6%
Métropole Télévision S.A MMT €12.04 €15.96 +33%
Beijing Gehua Catv Network Co 600037 ¥7.07 ¥3.63 −49%
PT Surya Citra Media Tbk, SCMA 216.00 IDR 198.19 IDR −8%
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited ZEEL ₹104.65 ₹48.34 −54%
Sinclair, Inc SBGI $15.42 $4.29 −72%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc (NXST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $151.97 versus a price of $177.67, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NXST?
Our model-based fair value for Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc is $151.97 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $177.67.
What is the quality score of NXST?
Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc (NXST)?
Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NXST?
The net profit margin of Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc is about 3.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc pay a dividend?
Nexstar Broadcasting Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
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