Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $18.6B · ISIN US65461T1016
What is Nippon Steel Corp ADR really worth?
Nippon Steel Corp ADR
NPSCY · US
Below-average quality, trading 35% below our fair value of $7.01.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $4.28 to $7.01 (+63.7%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +10.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.84 to $11.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.32 – $7.67 · fair‑value band $5.84 – $11.07 · the $4.59 price screens below the $7.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Nippon Steel Corp ADR (NPSCY) currently trades at $4.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.01, implying the stock looks roughly 34.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $59.18 per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the $4.59 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $25.79, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nippon Steel Corp ADR generated revenue of $10.1T at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 31.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at $4.7T. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.84 (bear case) to $11.07 (bull case); at $4.59, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 53%, NPSCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($712.07) versus Earnings-Based ($25.79). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products.
Full company description
Nippon Steel Corporation engages in the steelmaking and steel fabrication, engineering, chemicals and materials, and system solutions businesses in Japan and internationally. The company's Steelmaking and Steel Fabrication segment engages in the manufacture and sale of steel products. Its Engineering and Construction segment engages in the design, manufacture, sale, construction, and supervision of various plants and facilities, energy pipelines, water facilities, industrial machinery and equipment, buildings, building materials and equipment, steel structures, etc.; operation, management, and maintenance of plants and facilities, etc.; waste treatment and recycling business; and electricity, gas, heat, and other supply businesses. The company's Chemicals and Materials segment engages in the manufacture and sale of coal-based chemical products, petrochemicals, electronic materials, and materials and components for semiconductors and electronic parts; carbon fiber and composite products; and products that utilize technologies for metal processing. Its System Solutions segment offers computer system engineering and consulting; and IT-enabled outsourcing services and other services. The company also provides steel plates, sheets, and slags; structural steels; pipes and tubes; railway, automotive, and machinery parts; titanium; and stainless steel and electrical steel sheet products for use in various applications, including automotive, construction, energy, railways and shipping, and consumer electronics industries. The company was formerly known as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation and changed its name to Nippon Steel Corporation in April 2019. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Nippon Steel Corp ADR reported revenue of $10.7T in FY2026 versus $6.8T in FY2022, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was $18.2B in FY2026, compounding −58.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +7.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Steel · 398 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.60 | €46.04 | −29% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $234.67 | $127.14 | −46% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.80 | ₹145.39 | −22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
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