Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $32.9B · ISIN US8581191009
What is Steel Dynamics Inc really worth?
Steel Dynamics Inc
STLD · US
A solid business, but trading 93% above our fair value of $127.14.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −7.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($158.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($56.68 to $158.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.06 – $282.12 · fair‑value band $56.68 – $158.93 · the $246.03 price screens above the $127.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) currently trades at $246.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.14, implying the stock looks roughly 93.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $354.00 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $246.03 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $32.50, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Steel Dynamics Inc generated revenue of $19.0B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.3%. Net debt stands at $3.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $56.68 (bear case) to $158.93 (bull case); at $246.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 107% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −48%, STLD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.93 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($354.00) versus Dividend Discount ($32.50). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations.
Full company description
Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through four segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, Steel Fabrication Operations, and Aluminum Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing steel bars, standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars; channels, angles, flats, merchant rounds, and reinforcing steel bars; and specialty shapes and light structural steel products. This segment also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agricultural equipment, energy, and pipe and tube markets. The Metals Recycling Operations segment is involved in the ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal processing, transportation, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces steel non-residential building components, such as steel joists, joist girders, and steel deck products for non-residential steel fabricators, metal building companies, general construction contractors, developers, property owners, brokers, and governmental entities. The Aluminum Operations segment offers recycled aluminum flat rolled products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Steel Dynamics Inc reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $18.4B in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −22.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.1 % · buybacks/dilution +5.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
STLD screens 93% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- U.S. steel and materials stocks swing amid U.S.-Canada trade war
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Rallies On Proposed 50% Tariff
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) Gains As Market Dips: What You Should Know
- Is Steel Dynamics (STLD) a Buy as Wall Street Analysts Look Optimistic?
Peer Group
Steel · 398 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.60 | €46.04 | −29% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.80 | ₹145.39 | −22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,891 | ₹793.69 | −58% |
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