NPI.TO (NPI) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CA · Market cap C$5.8B (≈ $4.2B) · ISIN CA6665111002
What is NPI.TO really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 38% below our fair value of C$32.97.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −5.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$15.29 – C$35.86 · fair‑value band C$18.51 – C$32.97 · the C$20.42 price screens below the C$32.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
NPI.TO (NPI) currently trades at C$20.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$32.97, implying the stock looks roughly 38.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$29.54 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the C$20.42 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$7.84, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, NPI.TO generated revenue of C$2.6B at a net margin of −5.5%. Revenue grew 16.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.3%. Net debt stands at C$6.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$18.51 (bear case) to C$32.97 (bull case); at C$20.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 61%, NPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$29.54) versus Earnings-Based (C$7.84). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements.
Full company description
Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, it owned or had a net economic interest in 3,014 MW of power-producing facilities with a total gross operating capacity of approximately 3,498 MW and a regulated utility. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
NPI.TO reported revenue of C$2.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$163M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Northland Power (TSX:NPI) Following Offshore Wind Optimism Still Looks Undervalued
- Northland Power Inc (NPIFF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Baltic Power Milestone and ...
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.96 | ¥25.13 | −10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 139.25 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.79 | ¥5.57 | −43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.49 | −12% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €57.00 | €66.19 | +16% |
| BEP BEP | $31.27 | $70.40 | +125% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$45.05 | C$42.83 | −5% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.80 | €13.55 | −32% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | −53% |
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