Northland Power Inc. (NPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Northland Power Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Utilities · CA · Market cap C$5.5B (≈ $4.0B) · ISIN CA6665111002
At a glance
NPNorthland Power Inc.NPI · TO
PriceC$21.10
Fair ValueC$32.97
Upside+56.3%
Quality48/100
Below-average quality, trading 36% below our fair value of C$32.97.
As of Sep 10, 2026, the fair value of Northland Power Inc. is C$32.97 per share against a price of C$21.10, so the fair value sits 56% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.5% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·4.93% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Moderate moat 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 25 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange C$18.51 to C$32.97
Fair value as of: Sep 10, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −3.3% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$15.29 – C$35.86 · fair‑value band C$18.51 – C$32.97 · the C$21.10 price screens below the C$32.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 10, 2026.
Northland Power Inc. (NPI) currently trades at C$21.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$32.97, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$29.54 per share, and 9 of the 16 models we run sit above the C$21.10 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$7.84, and 7 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northland Power Inc. generated revenue of C$2.6B at a net margin of −5.5%. Revenue grew 16.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.3%. Net debt stands at C$6.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 10, 2026
Scenario range: C$18.51 (bear) to C$32.97 (bull), the price of C$21.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 56%, NPI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio2.33TTM
EPS (TTM)C$−0.5700
Dividend yield4.9%
Net margin−6.7%FY2025
Return on equity−1.3%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)6.9%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin46.2%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)C$2.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+16.4%3y avg −0.2%
EPS growth (YoY)+31.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flowC$977MFY2025
Net debtC$6.5BFY2025 · ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality48/100
Of which business quality 46
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Profitability7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow96
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance56
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements.
Full company description
Northland Power Inc. operates as a power producer in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany, Colombia, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company produces electricity from renewable resources, such as offshore and onshore wind; solar; natural gas; and battery energy storage for sale under power purchase agreements and other revenue arrangements. As of December 31, 2025, it owned or had a net economic interest in 3,014 MW of power-producing facilities with a total gross operating capacity of approximately 3,498 MW and a regulated utility. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northland Power Inc. reported revenue of C$2.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$163M in FY2025.
Growth Quality 42/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$2.4B
Latest YoY
+3.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.0%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
43.7% (2020) → 32.3% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Above median
Fair Value upside+58% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)46% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.50× · Above median
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.65× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF4.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.57× · Priciest 25%
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Northland Power Inc. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-1.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+3.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+0.7 %
FCF yield on price17.71 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 0
FUTURE82· sector 0
PAST0· sector 14
HEALTH25· sector 67
DIVIDEND99· sector 42
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 10, 2026).
Is Northland Power Inc. (NPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$32.97 versus a price of C$21.10, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NPI?
Our model-based fair value for Northland Power Inc. is C$32.97 (as of Sep 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$21.10.
What is the quality score of NPI?
Northland Power Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$32.97 (as of Sep 10, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$18.51, optimistic scenario C$32.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Northland Power Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$32.97, about +56% upside versus a price of C$21.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$18.51, optimistic scenario C$32.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Northland Power Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 10, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NPI?
The net profit margin of Northland Power Inc. is about −5.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Northland Power Inc. pay a dividend?
Northland Power Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Northland Power Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -1.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Sep 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NPI use?
Our models discount Northland Power Inc. at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northland Power Inc. it is C$32.97 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026), against a price of C$21.10. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Northland Power Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 10, 2026, NPI trades below its calculated fair value: price C$21.10, fair value C$32.97, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$21.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$32.97). For Northland Power Inc. the two are C$11.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northland Power Inc. worth?
The market values Northland Power Inc. at about C$5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 10, 2026). Per share that is C$21.10; our models calculate a fair value of C$32.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NPI?
Our models span a range for Northland Power Inc.: cautious scenario C$18.51, base C$32.97, optimistic C$32.97 per share (as of Sep 10, 2026, price C$21.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NPI?
The PEG ratio of Northland Power Inc. is 2.57 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northland Power Inc. (NPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northland Power Inc. (as of Sep 10, 2026): return on equity −1.3%, debt of 1.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NPI from its 52-week high?
Northland Power Inc. trades at C$21.10, about 17% below its 52-week high of C$25.39 and 35% above the low of C$15.59 (as of Sep 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$32.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northland Power Inc.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northland Power Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 10, 2026: price C$21.10, calculated fair value C$32.97 (+56%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NPI calculated?
We run Northland Power Inc. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$32.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Northland Power Inc. currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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