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China Longyuan Power Group (001289) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of China Longyuan Power Group stock ¥7.42, price ¥14.39, upside -48.4%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Oct 17, 2026
Some data
Oct 17, 2026
China Longyuan Power Group
001289 · SHEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 48% below what the stock costs today.
Solidly profitable · 12.5% net margin (TTM)
Quality 45/100
Moderate debt
0.4% dividend yield · Token dividend
Moderate moat 55/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value ¥7.42 · Strongly overvalued (−48.4%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr in CNY)
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range ¥13.25 – ¥28.56 · fair‑value band ¥6.77 – ¥8.41 · the ¥14.39 price screens above the ¥7.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
Company profile
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in new energy power generation in the Chinese Mainland, Canada, South Africa, and Ukraine.
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China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited was formerly known as China Longyuan Electric Power Group Corporation and changed its name to China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited in July 2009. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Beijing, China.
China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.
Stock analysis
China Longyuan Power Group (001289) currently trades at ¥14.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥7.42, 48.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥9.75 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the ¥14.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥5.50, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥6.77 (bear) to ¥8.41 (bull), the price of ¥14.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
China Longyuan Power Group reported revenue of 30.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 39.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 4.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding −11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 120B CNY (≈ $18.1B) Large · P/E ratio 35.1 · P/S ratio 4.59 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.4200 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 12.5% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −48%, 001289 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥6.77
Fair Value ¥7.42
Bull ¥8.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.2915 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income
¥7.22
¥7.55
¥8.13
75
Gordon GGM
¥6.77
¥7.42
¥8.41
67
ROIC Compounder
n/a
¥0.2500
>¥1.00
66
All 13 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
¥3.68
¥4.50
¥5.06
65
EPV
n/a
¥0.2500
>¥1.00
64
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
¥6.77
¥7.42
¥8.41
67
DDM Multi-Stage
¥6.77
¥8.53
¥11.01
65
Multiples
P/E Multiple
¥7.31
¥9.75
¥12.18
61
P/S Multiple
¥6.79
¥9.05
¥11.31
56
P/B Multiple
¥11.08
¥14.77
¥18.46
53
EV/EBIT
¥1.20
¥5.84
¥10.48
57
EV/EBITDA
¥8.19
¥15.16
¥22.13
63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
¥4.10
¥5.50
¥8.21
52
Economic Profit
Residual Income
¥7.22
¥7.55
¥8.13
75
ROIC Compounder
n/a
¥0.2500
>¥1.00
66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
¥5.19
¥7.42
¥9.65
66
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
50
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
17
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
52
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
83
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
26
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
20/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 34%
001289 screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: Chinese Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥29.57 | ¥32.53 | +10% | vs 001289 |
| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥15.92 | ¥17.51 | +10% | vs 001289 |
| VERBUND AG VER | €66.05 | €66.45 | +1% | vs 001289 |
| China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 | ¥3.36 | ¥2.40 | −29% | vs 001289 |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €22.91 | €14.83 | −35% | vs 001289 |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥10.36 | ¥4.45 | −57% | vs 001289 |
| Public Power Corporation PPC | €23.08 | €7.56 | −67% | vs 001289 |
| EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR | €12.09 | €3.67 | −70% | vs 001289 |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 127.45 | kr 33.25 | −74% | vs 001289 |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,259 | ₹170.50 | −86% | vs 001289 |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Longyuan Power Group (001289) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥7.42 versus a price of ¥14.39, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 001289?
Our model-based fair value for China Longyuan Power Group is ¥7.42 (as of Oct 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.39.
What is the quality score of 001289?
China Longyuan Power Group has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥7.42 (as of Oct 17, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥6.77, optimistic scenario ¥8.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Longyuan Power Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥7.42, about −48% upside versus a price of ¥14.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥6.77, optimistic scenario ¥8.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
China Longyuan Power Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 17, 2026).
Does China Longyuan Power Group pay a dividend?
China Longyuan Power Group currently shows a dividend yield of 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 17, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Longyuan Power Group it is ¥7.42 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026), against a price of ¥14.39. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Longyuan Power Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 001289 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥14.39, fair value ¥7.42, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 001289?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥7.42). For China Longyuan Power Group the two are ¥6.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Longyuan Power Group worth?
The market values China Longyuan Power Group at about 120B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 17, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.39; our models calculate a fair value of ¥7.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 001289?
Our models span a range for China Longyuan Power Group: cautious scenario ¥6.77, base ¥7.42, optimistic ¥8.41 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026, price ¥14.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 001289?
China Longyuan Power Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.1 (as of Oct 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥7.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.8, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of 001289?
The PEG ratio of China Longyuan Power Group is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Longyuan Power Group (as of Oct 17, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 1.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 001289 from its 52-week high?
China Longyuan Power Group trades at ¥14.39, about 25% below its 52-week high of ¥19.23 and at the low of ¥14.39 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥7.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Longyuan Power Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Ørsted A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Longyuan Power Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 17, 2026: price ¥14.39, calculated fair value ¥7.42 (−48%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 001289 calculated?
We run China Longyuan Power Group through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥7.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.3 % above its aggregate fair value. China Longyuan Power Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥14.39. Our model-based fair value is ¥7.42, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Longyuan Power Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of China Longyuan Power Group
How large is the market capitalisation of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The market capitalisation of China Longyuan Power Group is 120B CNY (≈ $18.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Longyuan Power Group is 4.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Earnings per share at China Longyuan Power Group are ¥0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The dividend yield of China Longyuan Power Group is 0.4% (payout 15.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The net margin of China Longyuan Power Group is 12.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Longyuan Power Group is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Longyuan Power Group is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
The operating margin of China Longyuan Power Group is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Revenue at China Longyuan Power Group is growing −9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Longyuan Power Group (001289)?
Earnings per share at China Longyuan Power Group are growing −47.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does China Longyuan Power Group (001289) generate?
The free cash flow of China Longyuan Power Group is −2.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does China Longyuan Power Group (001289) carry?
The net debt of China Longyuan Power Group is 106B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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