Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US64073B1035
What is Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. really worth?
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
NP · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A strong business, but trading 849% above our fair value of $3.52.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +4.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (11 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range $17.14 – $35.11 · fair‑value band $2.64 – $4.40 · the $33.40 price screens above the $3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) currently trades at $33.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.52, implying the stock looks roughly 848.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $19.16 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $33.40 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.52, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. generated revenue of $168M at a net margin of 20.7%. Revenue grew 28.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $232M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.64 (bear case) to $4.40 (bull case); at $33.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 126% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −89%, NP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($19.16) versus Multiples ($3.52). Highest evidence: P/E Multiple (61).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States.
Full company description
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Neptune Flood Incorporated, operates as an insurance agency that engages in selling residential and commercial flood insurance policies on behalf of insurance carrier partners in the United States. The company offers primary and excess flood, parametric earthquake, and indemnity earthquake insurance through a network of agencies. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $160M in FY2025 versus $84.9M in FY2023, a compound +37.1%/yr. Reported net income was $37.4M in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2023.
NP screens 849% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $193.40 | $112.25 | −42% |
| Aon plc AON | $352.36 | $224.91 | −36% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $267.56 | $75.58 | −72% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $350.75 | $220.92 | −37% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $71.39 | $40.43 | −43% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $260.40 | $113.32 | −56% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,791 | ₹205.02 | −89% |
| Steadfast Group SDF | A$5.27 | A$3.92 | −26% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $69.74 | $39.55 | −43% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $19.67 | $30.47 | +55% |
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