Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $11.9B · ISIN US29530P1021
What is Erie Indemnity Company really worth?
Erie Indemnity Company
ERIE · US
A solid business, but trading 128% above our fair value of $113.32.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($141.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $148.70 – $526.55 · fair‑value band $84.99 – $141.65 · the $258.37 price screens above the $113.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) currently trades at $258.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $113.32, implying the stock looks roughly 128.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $99.73 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $258.37 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.12, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Erie Indemnity Company generated revenue of $4.1B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $346M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $84.99 (bear case) to $141.65 (bull case); at $258.37, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −56%, ERIE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.60 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($99.73) versus Asset-Based ($33.12). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States.
Full company description
Erie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services that include underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Erie Indemnity Company reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was $559M in FY2025, compounding +17.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.2 % · buybacks/dilution +1.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ERIE screens 128% overvalued. Compare with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Fairly Valued On Its Bloomberg 500 Removal?
- Erie Indemnity (ERIE) Stock May Be 2% Undervalued Despite Rich Earnings Valuation
- Do Wall Street Analysts Like Erie Indemnity Stock?
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $193.40 | $112.25 | −42% |
| Aon plc AON | $352.36 | $224.91 | −36% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $267.56 | $75.58 | −72% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $350.75 | $220.92 | −37% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $71.39 | $40.43 | −43% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,791 | ₹205.02 | −89% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $32.70 | $3.52 | −89% |
| Steadfast Group SDF | A$5.27 | A$3.92 | −26% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $69.74 | $39.55 | −43% |
| Accelerant Holdings ARX | $19.67 | $30.47 | +55% |
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