Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.0B · ISIN KYG008941083
What is Accelerant Holdings really worth?
Accelerant Holdings
ARX · US
Below-average quality, trading 35% below our fair value of $30.47.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from $18.06 to $30.47 (+68.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +61.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($25.79). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (13 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range $9.36 – $30.05 · fair‑value band $25.79 – $35.15 · the $19.70 price screens below the $30.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Accelerant Holdings (ARX) currently trades at $19.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.47, implying the stock looks roughly 35.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $75.47 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $19.70 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.14, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $954M. Revenue grew 59.7% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.79 (bear case) to $35.15 (bull case); at $19.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 55%, ARX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($75.47) versus Asset-Based ($4.14). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments.
Full company description
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance and reinsurance companies. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. It serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Accelerant Holdings was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Accelerant Holdings reported revenue of $880M in FY2025 versus $103M in FY2021, a compound +70.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.4B in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Beat the Market the Zacks Way: Accelerant, Insight, General Mills in Focus
- Why Is Accelerant Going Private Just One Year After Its IPO?
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX) Soars 57% as Buyer Bets Big on Firm
Peer Group
Insurance Brokers · 36 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance Brokers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance Brokers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MRSH | $193.40 | $112.25 | −42% |
| Aon plc AON | $352.36 | $224.91 | −36% |
| Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG | $267.56 | $75.58 | −72% |
| Willis Towers Watson Public Limited WTW | $350.75 | $220.92 | −37% |
| Brown & Brown, Inc BRO | $71.39 | $40.43 | −43% |
| Erie Indemnity Company ERIE | $260.40 | $113.32 | −56% |
| PB Fintech Limited POLICYBZR | ₹1,791 | ₹205.02 | −89% |
| Neptune Insurance Holdings NP | $32.70 | $3.52 | −89% |
| Steadfast Group SDF | A$5.27 | A$3.92 | −26% |
| CorVel Corporation CRVL | $69.74 | $39.55 | −43% |
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