National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.3B · ISIN US6359061008
What is National HealthCare Corporation really worth?
National HealthCare Corporation
NHC · US
A solid business, but trading 41% above our fair value of $157.66.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +6.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($196.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.06 – $236.75 · fair‑value band $112.37 – $196.69 · the $221.64 price screens above the $157.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) currently trades at $221.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $157.66, implying the stock looks roughly 40.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $150.36 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $221.64 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $33.33, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, National HealthCare Corporation generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 8.1%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $23.9M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $112.37 (bear case) to $196.69 (bull case); at $221.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 140% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −29%, NHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.61 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($150.36) versus Dividend Discount ($33.33). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
Notify me when NHC reaches fair value
Put NHC on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services.
Full company description
National HealthCare Corporation engages in the operation of services to skilled nursing facilities, assisted and independent living facilities, homecare and hospice agencies, and health hospitals. It operates through two segments: Inpatient and Homecare and Hospice Services. The company's skilled nursing facilities offer licensed therapy services, nutrition services, social services, activities, and housekeeping and laundry services, as well as medical services prescribed by physicians; and rehabilitative services, such as physical, speech, respiratory, and occupational therapy for patients recovering from strokes, heart attacks, orthopedic conditions, neurological illnesses, or other illnesses, injuries, or disabilities. It provides medical specialty units comprise memory care units and sub-acute nursing units that provide specialized care and programs for persons with Alzheimer's or related disorders; and assisted living facilities offer personal care services and assistance with general activities of daily living, such as dressing, bathing, meal preparation, and medication management. Its independent living facilities offers specially designed residential units for the active and ambulatory elderly and provide various ancillary services for residents, including restaurants, activity rooms and social areas; and behavioral health services to both adults and geriatric patients with psychiatric, emotional, and addictive disorders. In addition, the company homecare agencies assist those who wish to stay at home or in assisted living residences but still require some degree of medical care or assistance with daily activities; hospice agencies that provides hospice and palliative care; and operates pharmacies, as well as managed care insurance solutions. Further, the company offers management, accounting, and financial services; and leases its properties to third party operators. The company was founded in 1971 and is based in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National HealthCare Corporation reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $120M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NHC screens 41% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- National HealthCare Corp. Profit Climbs In Q2
- NHC Reports Second Quarter 2026 Earnings
- NHC Announces Common Dividend
- Jim Cramer Explains the Repeating Chart Pattern for National HealthCare Corporation
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 256 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $417.82 | $547.67 | +31% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €45.25 | €32.15 | −29% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 241.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | −53% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | −46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.80 | $330.25 | +24% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $180.68 | $186.49 | +3% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,818 | ₹2,955 | −66% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FME | €39.92 | €71.28 | +79% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.25 | ¥7.67 | −7% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,005 | ₹284.87 | −72% |
Compare National HealthCare Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of NHC?
What is the quality score of NHC?
What is the revenue of National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)?
What is the net profit margin of NHC?
Does National HealthCare Corporation pay a dividend?
Watch National HealthCare Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts National HealthCare Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.