HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $80.7B · ISIN US40412C1018
What is HCA Healthcare, Inc. really worth?
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA · US
A solid business, trading 25% below our fair value of $547.67.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +2.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The model range is unusually wide ($259.83 to $840.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $160.63 – $543.23 · fair‑value band $259.83 – $840.97 · the $409.20 price screens below the $547.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) currently trades at $409.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $547.67, implying the stock looks roughly 25.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $672.77 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $409.20 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $264.83, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, HCA Healthcare, Inc. generated revenue of $76.4B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 136.3%. Net debt stands at $49.2B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $259.83 (bear case) to $840.97 (bull case); at $409.20, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at 34%, HCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $17.65 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($672.77) versus Dividend Discount ($49.27). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy …
Full company description
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HCA Healthcare, Inc. reported revenue of $75.6B in FY2025 versus $58.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $6.8B in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +5.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Community Health Systems to Participate in the Wells Fargo 21st Annual Healthcare Conference
- Tenet Healthcare and Archrock have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day
- Tenet to Participate in the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresenius SE FRE | €45.25 | €32.15 | −29% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 241.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | −53% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | −46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.80 | $330.25 | +24% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $180.68 | $186.49 | +3% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,818 | ₹2,955 | −66% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FME | €39.92 | €71.28 | +79% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.25 | ¥7.67 | −7% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,005 | ₹284.87 | −72% |
| Encompass Health Corporation EHC | $120.31 | $109.77 | −9% |
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