HCA Healthcare, Inc (HCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $80.7B
HCA Healthcare, Inc
HCA · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $554.93 to $547.67 (−1.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +13.2% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 33% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The model range is unusually wide ($259.83 to $840.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $160.63 – $543.23 · fair‑value band $259.83 – $840.97 · the $411.74 price screens below the $547.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HCA Healthcare, Inc (HCA) currently trades at $411.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $547.67, implying the stock looks roughly 33.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, HCA Healthcare, Inc generated revenue of $76.4B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 136.3%. Net debt stands at $49.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $259.83 (bear case) to $840.97 (bull case); at $411.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at 33%, HCA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($672.77) versus Dividend Discount ($49.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy …
Full company description
HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services in the United States. The company owns, manages, and operates hospitals, ASCs, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, as well as rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, physician practices, home health agencies, hospices, outpatient physical therapy providers, home and community-based services providers, and various other facilities. Its general and acute care hospitals offer medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HCA Healthcare, Inc reported revenue of $75.6B in FY2025 versus $58.8B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $6.8B in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +6.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch HCA: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Could HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Stock Rebound After Guidance Cuts and Payer Pressure?
- What Could HCA Healthcare (HCA) Union Protests Mean For Pay And Staffing?
- HCA’s New Clinical and Ambulatory Structure: Strategic Tune-Up or Turning Point for HCA (HCA)?
- HCA Healthcare Announces Dr. Michael Schlosser as Executive Vice President and Chief Clinical Officer; Names Charles Gressle President of Ne
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 265 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresenius SE FRE | €46.82 | €32.15 | -31% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 235.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | -52% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | -46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.79 | $330.25 | +24% |
| Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 | R$33.97 | R$47.31 | +39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,565 | ₹2,955 | -65% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.87 | ¥7.67 | -14% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,008 | ₹284.87 | -72% |
| Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company BDMS | 19.70 THB | 18.57 THB | -6% |
| Fortis Healthcare Limited FORTIS | ₹906.15 | ₹300.29 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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