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National Grid PLC (NG) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · GB · Market cap 61.0B GBX · ISIN GB00BDR05C01

What is National Grid PLC really worth?

NG National Grid PLC NG · LSE
Price£11.51
Fair Value£8.09
Upside−29.7%
Quality35/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 42% above our fair value of £8.09.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 18.3% net margin

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.3 %/yr)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Weak on future: 10 out of 100

For context

·4.10% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range £5.49 – £11.11

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £8.89 to £8.09 (−9.0%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −3.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£11.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (£5.49 to £11.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£13.65 £6.35 Fair Value £8.09 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £6.35 – £13.65 · fair‑value band £5.49 – £11.11 · the £11.51 price screens above the £8.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

National Grid PLC (NG) currently trades at £11.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £8.09, implying the stock looks roughly 42.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £9.91 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the £11.51 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £2.41, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, National Grid PLC generated revenue of £17.7B at a net margin of 18.3%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at £46.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £5.49 (bear case) to £11.11 (bull case); at £11.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −30%, NG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.0549 per share, which is 0.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence £6.65 £7.17 £8.43 74
EPV £0.8700 £2.41 £3.76 68
ROIC Compounder £0.8700 £2.41 £3.76 66
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £4.43 £11.44 £14.90 63
PEG = 1.0 £2.16 £3.08 £4.01 55
EPV £0.8700 £2.41 £3.76 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £2.99 £5.92 £9.88 64
DDM Multi-Stage £2.99 £4.59 £6.30 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple £8.79 £11.72 £14.66 63
P/S Multiple £6.66 £8.89 £11.11 58
P/B Multiple £8.30 £11.07 £13.84 55
EV/EBIT £4.67 £9.03 £13.38 63
EV/EBITDA £3.71 £7.74 £11.77 64
EV/Revenue £0.5000 £3.17 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £3.95 £5.29 £7.90 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence £6.65 £7.17 £8.43 74
ROIC Compounder £0.8700 £2.41 £3.76 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £6.94 £9.91 £12.88 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£9.91) versus Economic Profit (£2.41). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 17.7
P/S ratio 3.24 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) £0.6500 price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.7
Dividend yield 4.1% payout 72.7%
Net margin 18.3% FY2026
Return on equity 8.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 32.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) £17.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.0% 3y avg −6.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +14.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −3.8B GBX FY2026
Net debt 46.4B GBX FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 41
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales.

Full company description

National Grid plc engages in the transmission and distribution of electricity and gas. It operates through UK Electricity Transmission, UK Electricity Distribution, New England, New York, National Grid Ventures, and Other segments. The UK Electricity Transmission segment provides electricity transmission networks in England and Wales. The UK Electricity Distribution segment offers electricity distribution services in east and west Midlands, Southwest of England, and South Wales. The New England segment provides electricity and gas supply and distribution, and high-voltage electricity transmission services in New England. The New York segment offers electricity and gas distribution, and electricity transmission services in New York. The National Grid Ventures segment provides transmission services through electricity interconnectors and LNG importation at the Isle of Grain. The Other segment engages in the leasing and sale of commercial property, as well as insurance activities in the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

National Grid PLC reported revenue of £17.7B in FY2026 versus £18.4B in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was £3.2B in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 31/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
£17.7B
Latest YoY
−3.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (33Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.2% (7.1 + 4.1)
Revenue −1.0%/yr
FY22 £18.4B
FY23 £21.7B
FY24 £19.9B
FY25 £18.4B
FY26 £17.7B
Net income +8.3%/yr
FY22 £2.4B
FY23 £7.8B
FY24 £2.3B
FY25 £2.9B
FY26 £3.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −7.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.2 %

of which total revenue +3.3 % · buybacks/dilution −3.1 %

EBIT margin +2.1 %
Tax rate −1.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

NG screens 42% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Grid PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −30% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.07× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.10× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.67× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 17.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.05× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE10 · sector 32
PAST34 · sector 39
HEALTH46 · sector 52
DIVIDEND82 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NextEra Energy, Inc NEE $83.47 $32.94 −61%
The Southern Company SO $88.25 $58.81 −33%
Duke Energy Corporation DUK $120.25 $74.89 −38%
American Electric Power Company AEP $122.96 $77.23 −37%
Dominion Energy, Inc D $66.01 $46.34 −30%
Entergy Corporation ETR $105.75 $52.92 −50%
Xcel Energy Inc XEL $76.34 $44.61 −42%
Exelon Corporation EXC $43.96 $37.60 −14%
Endesa, S.A ELE €42.30 €25.72 −39%
Consolidated Edison, Inc ED $107.70 $62.35 −42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is National Grid PLC (NG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £8.09 versus a price of £11.51, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NG?
Our model-based fair value for National Grid PLC is £8.09 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £11.51.
What is the quality score of NG?
National Grid PLC has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of National Grid PLC (NG)?
National Grid PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £17.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NG?
The net profit margin of National Grid PLC is about 18.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 18.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does National Grid PLC pay a dividend?
National Grid PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.10% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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