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Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · IT · Market cap €5.0B · ISIN IT0005366767

What is Nexi S.p.A really worth?

NS Nexi S.p.A NEXI · MI
Price€4.28
Fair Value€9.99
Upside+133.6%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 57% below our fair value of €9.99.

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Strengths

Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +30.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -53.0% net margin
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range €5.02 to €17.90
!Weak on future: 8 out of 100

For context

·7.01% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range €5.02 – €17.90

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −1.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€5.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (€5.02 to €17.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€17.00 €2.56 Fair Value €9.99 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.56 – €17.00 · fair‑value band €5.02 – €17.90 · the €4.28 price screens below the €9.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) currently trades at €4.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €9.99, implying the stock looks roughly 57.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €14.60 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the €4.28 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €3.96, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nexi S.p.A generated revenue of €6.3B at a net margin of −53.8%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −37.4%. Net debt stands at €3.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.02 (bear case) to €17.90 (bull case); at €4.28, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 134%, NEXI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €7.17 €14.60 €32.96 74
EPV €3.12 €3.96 €4.68 74
Growth DCF €6.88 €15.78 €29.39 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €7.17 €14.60 €32.96 74
5Y Revenue Exit €5.18 €11.42 €20.28 69
5Y EBITDA Exit €13.71 €30.51 €53.16 72
10Y Revenue Exit €5.53 €11.86 €22.47 63
10Y EBITDA Exit €11.49 €26.20 €51.62 64
Earnings-Based
EPV €3.12 €3.96 €4.68 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT €10.39 €14.59 €18.79 65
EV/EBITDA €17.64 €24.26 €30.87 67
EV/Revenue €4.16 €6.89 €9.62 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.00 €4.03 €6.01 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €6.88 €15.78 €29.39 74
Rev-Margin DCF €5.18 €11.19 €19.65 69
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder €3.12 €3.96 €4.68 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€14.60) versus Earnings-Based (€3.96). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.64 TTM
EPS (TTM) €−2.81
Dividend yield 7.0%
Net margin −53.8% FY2025
Return on equity −37.4% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 14.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €6.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.5% 3y avg +4.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −68.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €806M FY2025
Net debt €3.6B FY2025 · ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 43
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations in Italy, Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Southeast Europe, and internationally.

Full company description

Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, small and medium-sized enterprises, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations in Italy, Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Southeast Europe, and internationally. The company offers payment processing and acceptance services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of Point of Sales terminals; fraud prevention services; and dispute management services, as well as customer support and value-added services. It also provides various issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; payment tracking and the production of monthly statements, data analysis and price-setting support services, customer service, and dispute management, as well as communication and customer development services; installation and management of Automated Teller Machines; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments. In addition, the company offers applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Nexi S.p.A reported revenue of €6.3B in FY2025 versus €3.0B in FY2021, a compound +20.0%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.4B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€6.3B
Latest YoY
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+21.6%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +20.0%/yr
FY21 €3.0B
FY22 €5.4B
FY23 €5.9B
FY24 €6.1B
FY25 €6.3B
Net income
FY21 €37.7M
FY22 €140M
FY23 −€1.0B
FY24 €167M
FY25 −€3.4B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nexi S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NEXI

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +134% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −53% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.0% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.79× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.82× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.91× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 7.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 0
FUTURE8 · sector 50
PAST0 · sector 15
HEALTH61 · sector 98
DIVIDEND100 · sector 26

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $480.35 $365.74 −24%
Oracle Corporation ORCL $151.94 $117.84 −22%
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $166.00 $61.46 −63%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $442.61 $101.19 −77%
Block, Inc XYZ A$111.01 A$70.69 −36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $105.26 $71.79 −32%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $190.64 $154.83 −19%
Adyen N.V ADYEN €1,007 €707.53 −30%
MongoDB, Inc MDB $440.58 $93.91 −79%
Okta, Inc OKTA $166.23 $30.50 −82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nexi S.p.A (NEXI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €9.99 versus a price of €4.28, about +134% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NEXI?
Our model-based fair value for Nexi S.p.A is €9.99 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.28.
What is the quality score of NEXI?
Nexi S.p.A has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Nexi S.p.A (NEXI)?
Nexi S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NEXI?
The net profit margin of Nexi S.p.A is about −53.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nexi S.p.A pay a dividend?
Nexi S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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