Mueller Water Products (MWA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.9B · ISIN US6247581084
What is Mueller Water Products really worth?
Mueller Water Products
MWA · US
A solid business, but trading 28% above our fair value of $18.70.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −10.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.60 to $26.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.50 – $30.29 · fair‑value band $12.60 – $26.24 · the $23.90 price screens above the $18.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Mueller Water Products (MWA) currently trades at $23.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.70, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.83 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $23.90 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.30, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mueller Water Products generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 14.2%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.3%. Net debt stands at $20.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.60 (bear case) to $26.24 (bull case); at $23.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −22%, MWA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9744 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($20.83) versus Dividend Discount ($3.30). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions.
Full company description
Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water used by municipalities, and the residential and non-residential construction industries in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions. The Water Flow Solutions segment provides valves for water systems, such as iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves, which are used to control distribution and transmission of potable water and non-potable water, as well as in water transmission or distribution, water treatment facilities, or industrial applications. It also offers service brass products. The Water Management Solutions segment offers dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants for water infrastructure development; fire protection systems, and water infrastructure repair and replacement projects; pipe repair products, such as couplings, grips, and clamps used to repair leaks; residential, fire protection, and commercial water metering products and systems; water leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services; machines and tools for tapping, drilling, extracting, installing, and stopping-off; gas valve products for use in gas distribution systems; and intelligent water solutions, including pressure control valves, advanced pressure management, network analytics, event management, and date logging. It sells its products under the Canada Valve, Centurion, Ez-Max, Hydro Gate, Hydro-Guard, HYMAX, HYMAX VERSA, Jones, Krausz, Milliken, Mueller Systems, Mueller, Pratt, Pratt Industrial, Repamax, Repaflex, Singer, Echologics, Echoshore, ePulse, Hersey, LeakFinderRT, Sentryx, and U.S. Pipe Valve and Hydrant brands. Mueller Water Products, Inc. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mueller Water Products reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $192M in FY2025, compounding +28.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MWA screens 28% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mueller Water Products (MWA) is an Incredible Growth Stock: 3 Reasons Why
- Zacks.com featured highlights Garrett Motion, Brinker, Vertiv and Mueller Water Products
- Mueller Water Products (MWA) Slid on Broader Investor Concerns
- MWA or NDSN: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 792 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $941.84 | $131.95 | −86% |
| SIE SIE | €289.85 | €139.77 | −52% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $402.78 | $168.65 | −58% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $995.02 | $398.69 | −60% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 206.60 | kr 112.59 | −46% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $564.40 | $348.94 | −38% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $281.67 | $145.84 | −48% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.18 | $58.44 | −62% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $236.25 | $125.80 | −47% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $417.53 | $125.76 | −70% |
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