MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc (MSM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.0B · ISIN US5535301064
What is MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc really worth?
MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc
MSM · US
A solid business, but trading 60% above our fair value of $73.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −7.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($93.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($45.74 to $93.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.80 – $127.28 · fair‑value band $45.74 – $93.69 · the $117.89 price screens above the $73.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc (MSM) currently trades at $117.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.51, implying the stock looks roughly 60.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $71.01 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $117.89 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.65, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at $483M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $45.74 (bear case) to $93.69 (bull case); at $117.89, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −38%, MSM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.6400 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($71.01) versus Asset-Based ($16.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's metalworking and MRO products include cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, measuring instruments, metalworking products, machinery and accessories, tooling components, fasteners, flat stock products, raw materials, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies. It also offers stock-keeping units through its catalogs and brochures; e-commerce channels, including its website; inventory management solutions; and customer care centers, customer fulfillment centers, regional inventory centers and warehouses. In addition, the company serves individual machine shops, manufacturing companies, and government agencies. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $199M in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MSM screens 60% overvalued. Compare with W.W. Grainger, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MSC Industrial Supply Co. Earns Great Place to Work Certification(TM) for Third Consecutive Year
- Is MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Stretched Or Still Reasonable?
Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,306 | $613.88 | −53% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $51.14 | $20.64 | −60% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $245.18 | $148.98 | −39% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $347.60 | $213.01 | −39% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $313.05 | $251.37 | −20% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$199.59 | C$127.90 | −36% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $319.11 | $191.65 | −40% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$93.86 | C$76.38 | −19% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 344.00 | kr 156.35 | −55% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $45.45 | $49.47 | +9% |
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