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WW Grainger Inc (GWW) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $65.0B · ISIN US3848021040

What is WW Grainger Inc really worth?

WG WW Grainger Inc logo WW Grainger Inc GWW · US
Price$1,313
Fair Value$613.88
Upside−53.2%
Quality71/100

A solid business, but trading 114% above our fair value of $613.88.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.7 %/yr)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 80/100

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Weak on dividend: 14 out of 100

For context

·0.69% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $361.27 – $948.52

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +1.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($948.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($361.27 to $948.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$1,402 $374.79 Fair Value $613.88 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $374.79 – $1,402 · fair‑value band $361.27 – $948.52 · the $1,313 price screens above the $613.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

WW Grainger Inc (GWW) currently trades at $1,313, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $613.88, implying the stock looks roughly 113.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $668.11 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,313 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $149.00, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, WW Grainger Inc generated revenue of $18.4B at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 10.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 46.1%. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $361.27 (bear case) to $948.52 (bull case); at $1,313, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −53%, GWW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $19.10 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $280.98 $455.79 $721.31 79
Growth DCF $286.75 $442.01 $663.78 78
Owner Earnings $267.81 $435.40 $689.95 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $280.98 $455.79 $721.31 79
Owner Earnings $267.81 $435.40 $689.95 75
5Y Revenue Exit $370.40 $639.80 $985.05 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $425.43 $742.38 $1,112 74
5Y P/E Exit $402.83 $700.26 $1,012 70
10Y Revenue Exit $320.37 $558.56 $880.16 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $369.93 $629.65 $976.84 67
10Y P/E Exit $355.55 $600.46 $900.48 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $245.71 $751.14 $997.18 65
Lynch FV $161.37 $230.54 $299.70 61
PEG = 1.0 $161.37 $230.54 $299.70 57
EPV $379.72 $449.28 $510.14 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $90.82 $188.83 $299.57 66
DDM Multi-Stage $90.82 $149.00 $198.19 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $569.11 $758.81 $948.52 63
P/S Multiple $460.71 $614.28 $767.85 58
P/B Multiple $296.02 $394.69 $493.36 55
EV/EBIT $689.07 $931.31 $1,174 66
EV/EBITDA $570.54 $773.26 $975.98 67
EV/Revenue $441.19 $646.40 $851.61 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $43.85 $58.76 $87.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $286.75 $442.01 $663.78 78
Rev-Margin DCF $370.40 $637.47 $941.64 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $279.47 $426.19 $5,446 64
ROIC Compounder $404.20 $508.66 $622.27 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $467.68 $668.11 $868.54 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($668.11) versus Asset-Based ($58.76). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 35.3
P/S ratio 3.36 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $37.15 price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.3
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 24.3%
Net margin 9.5% FY2025
Return on equity 46.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 28.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 16.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $18.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.1% 3y avg +5.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.3B FY2025
Net debt $2.6B FY2025 · ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 89
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 46
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

W.W. Grainger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes maintenance, repair, and operating products and services primarily in North America, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, High-Touch Solutions North America and Endless Assortment.

Full company description

W.W. Grainger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes maintenance, repair, and operating products and services primarily in North America, Japan, and the United Kingdom. The company operates through two segments, High-Touch Solutions North America and Endless Assortment. It provides safety, security, material handling and storage equipment, pumps and plumbing equipment, cleaning and maintenance, and metalworking and hand tools. The company also offers technical support and inventory management services. It serves smaller businesses to large corporations, government entities, and other institutions, as well as commercial, healthcare, and manufacturing industries through sales and service representatives, and electronic and ecommerce channels. W.W. Grainger, Inc. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

WW Grainger Inc reported revenue of $17.9B in FY2025 versus $13.0B in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +13.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$17.9B
Latest YoY
+4.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.7% (15.0 + 0.7)
Revenue +8.3%/yr
FY21 $13.0B
FY22 $15.2B
FY23 $16.5B
FY24 $17.2B
FY25 $17.9B
Net income +13.1%/yr
FY21 $1.0B
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 $1.8B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $1.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.6 %

of which total revenue +6.2 % · buybacks/dilution +3.2 %

EBIT margin +2.2 %
Tax rate +2.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GWW screens 114% overvalued. Compare with Fastenal Company →

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WW Grainger Inc · Fair Value
$613.88 −114%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WW Grainger Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GWW

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −53% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 46% · Top 25%
Return on assets 20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.57× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 35.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 15.69× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.53× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 48.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 21.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.15× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 33
FUTURE51 · sector 18
PAST100 · sector 35
HEALTH72 · sector 91
DIVIDEND14 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is WW Grainger Inc (GWW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $613.88 versus a price of $1,313, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GWW?
Our model-based fair value for WW Grainger Inc is $613.88 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,313.
What is the quality score of GWW?
WW Grainger Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of WW Grainger Inc (GWW)?
WW Grainger Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GWW?
The net profit margin of WW Grainger Inc is about 9.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does WW Grainger Inc pay a dividend?
WW Grainger Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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