Ferguson Plc (FERG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $45.4B · ISIN US31488V1070
What is Ferguson Plc really worth?
Ferguson Plc
FERG · US
A solid business, but trading 50% above our fair value of $148.98.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $151.92 to $148.98 (−1.9%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −12.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($88.76 to $222.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $94.03 – $266.68 · fair‑value band $88.76 – $222.32 · the $223.23 price screens above the $148.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ferguson Plc (FERG) currently trades at $223.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.98, implying the stock looks roughly 49.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $173.54 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $223.23 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.15, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ferguson Plc generated revenue of $31.1B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. Net debt stands at $5.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $88.76 (bear case) to $222.32 (bull case); at $223.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −33%, FERG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $6.13 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($173.54) versus Asset-Based ($20.15). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. distributes essential water and air solutions to specialized professional in the United States and Canada. The company provides various products and services, including plumbing; pipe, valves, and fittings; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning; appliances; lighting; and water and wastewater solutions to residential and non-residential customers. It also supplies specialized water and wastewater treatment products to residential, commercial, and infrastructure contractors, as well as supplies pipe, valves, and fittings solutions to industrial customers. In addition, it offers customized solutions, such as virtual design, fabrication, valve actuation, pre-assembly, kitting, installation, and project management services, as well as after-sales support that comprises warranty, credit, project-based billing, returns and maintenance, and repair and operations support. The company sells its products through a network of distribution centers, branches, counter service and sales associates, showroom consultants, and e-commerce channels. Ferguson Enterprises Inc. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ferguson Plc reported revenue of $30.8B in FY2025 versus $22.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FERG screens 50% overvalued. Compare with W.W. Grainger, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Jim Cramer Calls Post-Earnings Pullback in Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) a “Gift”
- Ferguson Prices $1.2 Billion of Senior Unsecured Notes
- Ferguson Enterprises Tops Quarterly Views, Sees Sales Growth at Top End of Outlook
- Ferguson Beats Earnings Estimates. Why the HVAC Supplier Is Optimistic as Business Headwinds Persist.
Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,306 | $613.88 | −53% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $51.14 | $20.64 | −60% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $347.60 | $213.01 | −39% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $313.05 | $251.37 | −20% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$199.59 | C$127.90 | −36% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $319.11 | $191.65 | −40% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$93.86 | C$76.38 | −19% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 344.00 | kr 156.35 | −55% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $45.45 | $49.47 | +9% |
| Indutrade AB INDT | kr 249.60 | kr 147.56 | −41% |
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