Mainova AG (MNV6) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · DE · Market cap €2.8B · ISIN DE0006553464
What is Mainova AG really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 63% above our fair value of €235.03.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€316.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (€170.63 to €316.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €295.26 – €550.98 · fair‑value band €170.63 – €316.89 · the €382.00 price screens above the €235.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Mainova AG (MNV6) currently trades at €382.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €235.03, implying the stock looks roughly 62.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €286.77 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the €382.00 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at €66.81, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mainova AG generated revenue of €3.9B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at €894M. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €170.63 (bear case) to €316.89 (bull case); at €382.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −38%, MNV6 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €6.48 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€286.77) versus DCF Models (€66.81). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mainova AG operates as an energy service provider in Germany. It operates through Electricity Supply; Gas Supply; Generation and District Heating; Renewable Energy/Energy Services; Water Supply; Investments; and Other Activities segments.
Full company description
Mainova AG operates as an energy service provider in Germany. It operates through Electricity Supply; Gas Supply; Generation and District Heating; Renewable Energy/Energy Services; Water Supply; Investments; and Other Activities segments. The company generates and supplies electricity and heat using thermal, wind, natural gas, solar, and biomass power plants; and PV business, contracting, and energy services. It is also involved in the supply of gas and water, as well as street lighting business. The company was founded in 1828 and is based in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Mainova AG operates as a subsidiary of Stadtwerke Frankfurt Am Main Holding Gmbh.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mainova AG reported revenue of €3.9B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was €137M in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
MNV6 screens 63% overvalued. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $83.47 | $32.94 | −61% |
| The Southern Company SO | $88.25 | $58.81 | −33% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $120.25 | $74.89 | −38% |
| National Grid plc NGG | $80.68 | $63.94 | −21% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $122.96 | $77.23 | −37% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $66.01 | $46.34 | −30% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $105.75 | $52.92 | −50% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $76.34 | $44.61 | −42% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $43.96 | $37.60 | −14% |
| Endesa, S.A ELE | €42.30 | €25.72 | −39% |
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