Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · SG · Market cap 6.0B SGD (≈ $4.7B) · ISIN SG1S03926213
What is Mapletree Logistics Trust really worth?
A solid business, but trading 31% above our fair value of 0.8800 SGD.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −6.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.12 SGD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9598 SGD – 1.61 SGD · fair‑value band 0.6600 SGD – 1.12 SGD · the 1.15 SGD price screens above the 0.8800 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) currently trades at 1.15 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.8800 SGD, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 0.9900 SGD per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the 1.15 SGD price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 0.6400 SGD, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mapletree Logistics Trust generated revenue of 708M SGD at a net margin of 39.1%. Revenue declined 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at 5.2B SGD. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.6600 SGD (bear case) to 1.12 SGD (bull case); at 1.15 SGD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −23%, M44U screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (0.9900 SGD) versus Growth DCF (0.6400 SGD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mapletree Logistics Trust, the first Asia Pacific-focused logistics REIT in Singapore, was listed on the SGX-ST Main Board on 28 July 2005. MLT's principal strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets.
Full company description
Mapletree Logistics Trust, the first Asia Pacific-focused logistics REIT in Singapore, was listed on the SGX-ST Main Board on 28 July 2005. MLT's principal strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets. As at 31 March 2026, it has a portfolio of 174 properties in Singapore, Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam with assets under management of S13.1 billion dollar. MLT is managed by Mapletree Logistics Trust Management Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd. Mapletree Logistics Trust was incorporated in 2004 in Singapore.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Mapletree Logistics Trust reported revenue of 695M SGD in FY2026 versus 666M SGD in FY2022, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 277M SGD in FY2026, compounding −22.9%/yr from FY2022.
M44U screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Industrial · 56 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prologis, Inc PLD | $140.70 | $61.28 | −56% |
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $311.20 | $162.43 | −48% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $140.12 | $78.38 | −44% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $198.47 | $81.41 | −59% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $39.32 | $47.91 | +22% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.44 SGD | 2.00 SGD | −18% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $39.73 | $25.06 | −37% |
| First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR | $62.39 | $20.72 | −67% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $36.39 | $20.69 | −43% |
| STAG Industrial, Inc STAG | $37.18 | $21.64 | −42% |
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