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STAG Industrial Inc (STAG) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $7.6B · ISIN US85254J1025

What is STAG Industrial Inc really worth?

SI STAG Industrial Inc logo STAG Industrial Inc STAG · US
Price$37.70
Fair Value$21.64
Upside−42.6%
Quality59/100

A solid business, but trading 74% above our fair value of $21.64.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trails peers (3/15)
!Moderate moat 60/100
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100

For context

·4.00% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $15.35 – $28.65

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −0.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($15.35 to $28.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$42.04 $23.20 Fair Value $21.64 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $23.20 – $42.04 · fair‑value band $15.35 – $28.65 · the $37.70 price screens above the $21.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

STAG Industrial Inc (STAG) currently trades at $37.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.64, implying the stock looks roughly 74.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $35.89 per share, and 4 of the 16 models we run sit above the $37.70 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.60, and 12 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, STAG Industrial Inc generated revenue of $864M at a net margin of 28.3%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. Net debt stands at $3.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $15.35 (bear case) to $28.65 (bull case); at $37.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −43%, STAG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $15.43 $16.42 $17.72 76
FCF DCF $14.57 $35.89 $92.13 71
Growth DCF $13.34 $40.86 $89.86 71
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.57 $35.89 $92.13 71
5Y Revenue Exit $4.44 $19.91 $45.45 65
5Y EBITDA Exit $21.26 $57.15 $113.73 70
10Y Revenue Exit $6.90 $24.98 $49.35 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.93 $54.83 $118.64 62
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.04 $25.99 $39.36 67
DDM Multi-Stage $13.04 $22.46 $27.43 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $18.24 $24.31 $30.39 58
P/B Multiple $18.24 $24.31 $30.39 55
EV/EBIT $11.90 $21.06 $30.21 64
EV/EBITDA $25.61 $39.34 $53.07 66
EV/Revenue — $6.07 $12.57 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.40 $12.60 $18.81 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $13.34 $40.86 $89.86 71
Rev-Margin DCF $4.44 $20.68 $44.28 65
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $15.43 $16.42 $17.72 76

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($35.89) versus Asset-Based ($12.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.6
P/S ratio 9.26 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.29 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.6
Dividend yield 4.0% payout 117%
Net margin 32.4% FY2025
Return on equity 6.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 37.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $864M TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1% 3y avg +8.7%
EPS growth (YoY) −34.7%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $402M FY2025
Net debt $3.3B FY2025 · ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 37
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 57
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc.

Full company description

STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Boston, United States.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

STAG Industrial Inc reported revenue of $845M in FY2025 versus $562M in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was $273M in FY2025, compounding +9.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$845M
Latest YoY
+10.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (18Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.4% (4.4 + 4.0)
Revenue +10.7%/yr
FY21 $562M
FY22 $657M
FY23 $708M
FY24 $767M
FY25 $845M
Net income +9.2%/yr
FY21 $192M
FY22 $178M
FY23 $193M
FY24 $189M
FY25 $273M

STAG screens 74% overvalued. Compare with Prologis, Inc →

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STAG Industrial Inc · Fair Value
$21.64 −74%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "STAG Industrial Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STAG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

REIT - Industrial · 56 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 37% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.83× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 8.79× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 18.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 19.49× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 7
FUTURE46 · sector 16
PAST28 · sector 29
HEALTH58 · sector 77
DIVIDEND80 · sector 100

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Prologis, Inc PLD $140.70 $61.28 −56%
Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA $311.20 $162.43 −48%
Extra Space Storage Inc EXR $140.12 $78.38 −44%
EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP $198.47 $81.41 −59%
Lineage, Inc LINE $39.32 $47.91 +22%
CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U 2.44 SGD 2.00 SGD −18%
CubeSmart CUBE $39.73 $25.06 −37%
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR $62.39 $20.72 −67%
Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR $36.39 $20.69 −43%
Terreno Realty Corporation TRNO $66.59 $36.59 −45%

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Frequently asked questions

Is STAG Industrial Inc (STAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.64 versus a price of $37.70, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STAG?
Our model-based fair value for STAG Industrial Inc is $21.64 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.70.
What is the quality score of STAG?
STAG Industrial Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of STAG Industrial Inc (STAG)?
STAG Industrial Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $864M (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of STAG?
The net profit margin of STAG Industrial Inc is about 28.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 28.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does STAG Industrial Inc pay a dividend?
STAG Industrial Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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