Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $52.0M · ISIN US5503511009
What is Luna Innovations Incorporated really worth?
Luna Innovations Incorporated
LUNA · US
Below-average quality, trading 43% below our fair value of $2.38.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price +3.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.62). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.62 to $3.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3000 – $12.79 · fair‑value band $1.62 – $3.13 · the $1.35 price screens below the $2.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA) currently trades at $1.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.38, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2.59 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $1.35 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.8100, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Luna Innovations Incorporated generated revenue of $117M at a net margin of −1.8%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.2%. Net debt stands at $22.3M. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.62 (bear case) to $3.13 (bull case); at $1.35, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 221% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at 76%, LUNA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($2.59) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8100). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Luna Innovations Incorporated provides fiber optic test, measurement, and control products worldwide. The company offers test and measurement equipment for fiber optic components and sub-assemblies; polarization control products, including components, modules, and instruments to measure, manage, and control polarization and group delay in fiber optic …
Full company description
Luna Innovations Incorporated provides fiber optic test, measurement, and control products worldwide. The company offers test and measurement equipment for fiber optic components and sub-assemblies; polarization control products, including components, modules, and instruments to measure, manage, and control polarization and group delay in fiber optic networks; tunable lasers; and single frequency lasers. It also provides ODiSI sensing solution, which provides distributed strain and temperature measurements; distributed temperature sensing system; hyperion sensing products; Terahertz Sensing Systems that provide precise single and multi-layer thickness, density, basis weight, and caliper thickness measurements; and distributed acoustic sensing products. The company markets its products to telecommunications companies, defense agencies, government system integrators, researchers, original equipment manufacturers, distributors, testing labs, and strategic partners directly, as well as through manufacturer representative organizations, partner and distribution channels, technical sales engineers, value added resellers, and independent sales representatives. Luna Innovations Incorporated was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Roanoke, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years
Luna Innovations Incorporated reported revenue of $117M in FY2023 versus $70.5M in FY2019, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1M in FY2023.
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Peer Group
Scientific & Technical Instruments · 164 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS | $316.13 | $107.22 | −66% |
| Garmin Ltd GRMN | $309.98 | $139.44 | −55% |
| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | $607.87 | $488.95 | −20% |
| Chroma ATE Inc 2360 | 2,195 TWD | 322.57 TWD | −85% |
| Hexagon AB HEXAB | kr 99.00 | kr 74.09 | −25% |
| MKS Inc MKSI | $281.60 | $76.00 | −73% |
| AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 | ¥60.00 | ¥24.39 | −59% |
| Fortive Corporation FTV | $61.54 | $33.48 | −46% |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | $56.99 | $34.12 | −40% |
| Cognex Corporation CGNX | $60.79 | $19.25 | −68% |
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