Cognex Corporation (CGNX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $10.7B
Cognex Corporation
CGNX · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $13.75 to $19.25 (+40.0%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price −5.3% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.05 – $88.90 · fair‑value band $14.44 – $24.07 · the $61.59 price screens above the $19.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Cognex Corporation (CGNX) currently trades at $61.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.25, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cognex Corporation generated revenue of $1.0B at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 24.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $186M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.44 (bear case) to $24.07 (bull case); at $61.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -69%, CGNX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($25.53) versus Dividend Discount ($5.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cognex Corporation provides machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks in the United States, Europe, Greater China, and internationally.
Full company description
Cognex Corporation provides machine vision products that capture and analyze visual information to automate manufacturing and distribution tasks in the United States, Europe, Greater China, and internationally. Its machine vision products are used to automate the manufacture and distribution of discrete items, such as mobile phones, automotive components, and e-commerce packages, by locating, identifying, inspecting, and measuring them. The company offers VisionPro software, a suite of patented vision tools for traditional rule-based tools and deep learning-enabled tools for advanced programming; vision systems that combine smart cameras and software to perform a wide range of tasks, including part location, identification, measurement, assembly verification, and robotic guidance; OneVision, a cloud-based platform designed to transform how manufacturers build, train, and scale AI-powered vision applications; In-Sight product line of vision systems and sensors; QuickBuild, which allows customers to build vision applications with a graphical and flowchart-based programming interface; DataMan, an image-based barcode reader for fixed-mount and handheld models, as well as barcode verifiers; and vision accessories, such as industrial cameras, lenses, lighting, vision controllers, frame grabbers, and I/O cards. It sells its products to the automotive, logistics, packaging, consumer electronics, medical-related, semiconductor, and consumer products industries. The company was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Natick, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cognex Corporation reported revenue of $994M in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $114M in FY2025, compounding −20.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CGNX screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Cognex (CGNX) Shares Are Sliding Today
- Cognex Sees Record Revenue, Margin Gains as AI Powers Machine-Vision Growth
- CGNX Q2 Deep Dive: AI-Driven Growth and Product Diversification Shape Outlook
- Cognex Q2 Earnings Call Centers on AI and Data Center Growth
Peer Group
Scientific & Technical Instruments · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | $686.49 | $488.95 | -29% |
| Hexagon AB HEXAB | kr 95.06 | kr 73.99 | -22% |
| MKS Inc MKSI | $294.38 | $76.00 | -74% |
| AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 | ¥57.89 | ¥34.47 | -40% |
| Fortive Corporation FTV | $61.54 | $33.48 | -46% |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | $57.98 | $34.12 | -41% |
| Wuhan Guide Infrared Co 002414 | ¥13.99 | ¥4.50 | -68% |
| ESCO Technologies Inc ESE | $300.42 | $105.78 | -65% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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