Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.6B · ISIN US5341871094
What is Lincoln National Corporation really worth?
Lincoln National Corporation
LNC · US
Below-average quality, trading 43% below our fair value of $80.02.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −2.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($60.02). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.88 – $59.12 · fair‑value band $60.02 – $100.03 · the $45.66 price screens below the $80.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) currently trades at $45.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.02, implying the stock looks roughly 42.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $79.85 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $45.66 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $27.93, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lincoln National Corporation generated revenue of $18.8B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $60.02 (bear case) to $100.03 (bull case); at $45.66, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at 75%, LNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.99 per share, which is 6.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($79.85) versus Dividend Discount ($27.93). Highest evidence: Residual Income (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services.
Full company description
Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities. The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lincoln National Corporation reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $17.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.1 % · buybacks/dilution +3.7 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook Aviva, Reinsurance, Primerica, Voya and Lincoln National
- Americans Ready to Take Control of Financial Stress, Lincoln Financial Research Finds
- 3 Reasons LNC is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- Lincoln Financial and Integrated Benefits Institute Outline How Employers Can Close Workforce Mental Health Gap
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.03 | ¥49.98 | +35% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥55.82 | ¥84.72 | +52% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.00 | HK$33.57 | −54% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$59.80 | C$38.80 | −35% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $116.52 | $74.34 | −36% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$90.25 | C$39.53 | −56% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $96.51 | $68.27 | −29% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | −5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | −36% |
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