Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $62.1B · ISIN US0010551028
What is Aflac Incorporated really worth?
Aflac Incorporated
AFL · US
A solid business, but trading 58% above our fair value of $74.34.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −7.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($92.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.09 – $129.55 · fair‑value band $55.75 – $92.92 · the $117.24 price screens above the $74.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) currently trades at $117.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $74.34, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $81.11 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $117.24 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $30.20, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aflac Incorporated generated revenue of $18.1B at a net margin of 25.6%. Revenue grew 27.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $55.75 (bear case) to $92.92 (bull case); at $117.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −37%, AFL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.33 per share, which is 5.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($81.11) versus Dividend Discount ($30.20). Highest evidence: Residual Income (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S.
Full company description
Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates in two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care, whole life, and GIFT insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment, and Tsumitasu insurance products in Japan. Its Aflac U.S. segment provides accident, disability, cancer, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, and life insurance products in the United States. The company also provides hearing, final expense, pet, Medicare supplement, supplemental dental and vision, short-term disability, and absence management insurance products, as well as cafeteria plans. It sells its products to individuals, families, and business owners through individual, independent corporate, and affiliated corporate agencies; banks; independent associates/career agents; and brokers. Aflac Incorporated was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Columbus, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aflac Incorporated reported revenue of $17.4B in FY2025 versus $22.1B in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −2.0 % · buybacks/dilution +4.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AFL screens 58% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aflac Incorporated to Present at the 2026 KBW Insurance Conference
- AF Legal Group Ltd (ASX:AFL) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Strategic ...
- Aflac (AFL) Stock Looks Cheap On Fair Value But Rich On Earnings
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.03 | ¥49.98 | +35% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥55.82 | ¥84.72 | +52% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.00 | HK$33.57 | −54% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$59.80 | C$38.80 | −35% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$90.25 | C$39.53 | −56% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $96.51 | $68.27 | −29% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | −5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | −36% |
| Power Corporation POW | C$94.43 | C$31.01 | −67% |
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