AIA Group Ltd (1299) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$779B (≈ $99.3B) · ISIN HK0000069689
What is AIA Group Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 131% above our fair value of HK$33.57.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from HK$6.63 to HK$33.57 (+406.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$41.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$42.80 – HK$91.88 · fair‑value band HK$25.18 – HK$41.97 · the HK$77.50 price screens above the HK$33.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
AIA Group Ltd (1299) currently trades at HK$77.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$33.57, implying the stock looks roughly 130.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$5.87 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$77.50 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$4.08, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AIA Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$26.2B at a net margin of 23.8%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at HK$11.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$25.18 (bear case) to HK$41.97 (bull case); at HK$77.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −57%, 1299 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$5.87) versus Asset-Based (HK$2.81). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients.
Full company description
AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products. It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AIA Group Ltd reported revenue of $32.6B in FY2025 versus $46.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $6.2B in FY2025, compounding −4.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −0.4 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
1299 screens 131% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.03 | ¥49.98 | +35% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥55.82 | ¥84.72 | +52% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$59.80 | C$38.80 | −35% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $116.52 | $74.34 | −36% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$90.25 | C$39.53 | −56% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $96.51 | $68.27 | −29% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | −5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | −36% |
| Power Corporation POW | C$94.43 | C$31.01 | −67% |
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