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Krones AG (KRN) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €3.5B

KA Krones AG KRN · XETRA
Price€114.80
Fair Value€198.88
Upside+73.2%
Quality60/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 5.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.58% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Narrow moat 44/100
Evidence: High Range €138.57 – €245.53 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price +5.9% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 73% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€138.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€140.63 €63.25 Fair Value €198.88 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €63.25 – €140.63 · fair‑value band €138.57 – €245.53 · the €114.80 price screens below the €198.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Krones AG (KRN) currently trades at €114.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €198.88, implying the stock looks roughly 73.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Krones AG generated revenue of €5.7B at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €401M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €138.57 (bear case) to €245.53 (bull case); at €114.80, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at 73%, KRN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €132.00 €185.23 €258.80 80
Residual Income €64.75 €80.96 €188.97 76
Rev-Margin DCF €119.02 €177.99 €246.41 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €130.58 €191.43 €281.26 38
Owner Earnings €139.02 €204.40 €300.93 31
5Y Revenue Exit €119.02 €177.66 €252.24 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €151.45 €238.68 €340.72 41
5Y P/E Exit €143.13 €223.03 €307.09 38
10Y Revenue Exit €119.28 €173.19 €245.28 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €142.47 €214.74 €311.64 37
10Y P/E Exit €137.27 €204.08 €286.42 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €64.40 €206.31 €275.17 54
Lynch FV €45.68 €65.25 €84.83 50
PEG = 1.0 €45.68 €65.25 €84.83 46
EPV €81.05 €91.10 €99.77 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €22.83 €45.50 €68.90 70
DDM Multi-Stage €22.83 €37.59 €48.03 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €149.16 €198.88 €248.60 63
P/S Multiple €120.75 €161.00 €201.25 58
P/B Multiple €120.75 €161.00 €201.25 55
EV/EBIT €157.10 €203.67 €250.24 53
EV/EBITDA €181.16 €235.74 €290.33 54
EV/Revenue €117.11 €159.84 €202.58 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €33.68 €45.14 €67.37 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €132.00 €185.23 €258.80 80
Rev-Margin DCF €119.02 €177.99 €246.41 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €64.75 €80.96 €188.97 76
ROIC Compounder €84.10 €101.39 €122.34 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €124.58 €177.97 €231.37 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€204.08) versus Dividend Discount (€37.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €5.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.5%
Net margin 5.1%
Return on equity 13.9%
Free cash flow €329M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.5
More key figures
Operating margin 4.2%
EPS (TTM) €9.17
Dividend yield 2.6%
EPS growth (YoY) -9.6%
Net cash €401M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Krones AG, together with its subsidiaries, plans, develops, manufactures, and sells machines and lines for the fields of process, filling, and packaging technology in Germany, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, China, the Americas, and internationally.

Full company description

Krones AG, together with its subsidiaries, plans, develops, manufactures, and sells machines and lines for the fields of process, filling, and packaging technology in Germany, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, the Asia Pacific, China, the Americas, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Filling and Packaging Technology, Process Technology, and Intralogistics. The Filling and Packaging Technology segment offers machines and systems for producing PET bottles; recycling systems for converting used plastic bottles into food-grade recycled materials. The Process Technology segment supplies machines and lines for producing and processing beer, soft drinks, fruit juices, milk, dairy drinks, and alternative proteins; and provides water treatment solutions and components under the Evoguard and Ampco Pumps brands. The Intralogistics segment is involved in the planning and design of automated warehousing, and order-picking and material flow systems with automated guided vehicle systems and matching software tools. It also provides system and software solutions. The company also offers logistics systems, and custom IT and digitalization solutions that manage and optimize all production processes. It serves beverage producers; and companies from the food, chemical, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic industries. Krones AG was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Neutraubling, Germany.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Krones AG reported revenue of €5.7B in FY2025 versus €3.7B in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was €299M in FY2025, compounding +20.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€5.7B
Latest YoY
+7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.0%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Revenue +11.3%/yr
FY21 €3.7B
FY22 €4.3B
FY23 €4.7B
FY24 €5.3B
FY25 €5.7B
Net income +20.6%/yr
FY21 €141M
FY22 €187M
FY23 €225M
FY24 €277M
FY25 €299M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.6 pp

of which total revenue +5.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −0.3 pp
Tax rate +0.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Krones AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KRN

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside +73% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.92× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.72× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 12.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 23
PAST 56 · sector 28
HEALTH 100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 52 · sector 24

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Krones AG (KRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €198.88 versus a price of €114.80, about +73% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KRN?
Our model-based fair value for Krones AG is €198.88 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €114.80.
What is the quality score of KRN?
Krones AG has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Krones AG (KRN)?
Krones AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KRN?
The net profit margin of Krones AG is about 5.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Krones AG pay a dividend?
Krones AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.58% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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