Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIROY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.9B
Kumba Iron Ore Limited
KIROY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $14.24 to $14.84 (+4.2%) since Jul 24, 2026. Share price −12.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 189% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.26 – $10.05 · fair‑value band $11.13 – $18.55 · the $5.14 price screens below the $14.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kumba Iron Ore Limited (KIROY) currently trades at $5.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.84, implying the stock looks roughly 188.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kumba Iron Ore Limited generated revenue of $70.1B at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $13.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.13 (bear case) to $18.55 (bull case); at $5.14, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at 189%, KIROY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($17.31) versus Asset-Based ($2.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments.
Full company description
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments. The company produces iron ore at its flagship Sishen mine located near the town of Kathu in the Northern Cape province; and its Kolomela mine located near Postmasburg in the Northern Cape province. It is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape province; and provision of iron ore logistics services through rail, as well as shipping services. The company exports its products to China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, rest of Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited is a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kumba Iron Ore Limited reported revenue of $66.8B in FY2025 versus $102B in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $13.5B in FY2025, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch KIROY: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIROY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and ...
- Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIROY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and ...
- Kumba Iron Ore's (JSE:KIO) five-year earnings growth trails the shareholder returns
- Kumba Iron Ore (JSE:KIO) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
Peer Group
Steel · 382 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,269 | ₹1,140 | -10% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.20 | ₹145.39 | -22% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 37.25 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 325,000 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -52% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,838 ARS | +16% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,112 | ₹516.27 | -54% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,894 | ₹771.10 | -59% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 39.22 MXN | -53% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,472 ARS | +55% |
| NMDC Limited NMDC | ₹85.00 | ₹112.98 | +33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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