Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.0B · ISIN US50125N1046
What is Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK really worth?
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK
KIROY · US
A solid business, trading 65% below our fair value of $14.98.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $15.01 to $14.98 (−0.2%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.26 – $10.05 · fair‑value band $11.24 – $18.73 · the $5.30 price screens below the $14.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK (KIROY) currently trades at $5.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.98, implying the stock looks roughly 64.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $17.47 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $5.30 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.39, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK generated revenue of 70.1B ZAR at a net margin of 20.9%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 13.0B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.24 (bear case) to $18.73 (bull case); at $5.30, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 183%, KIROY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($17.47) versus Asset-Based ($2.39). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments.
Full company description
Kumba Iron Ore Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, extraction, beneficiation, marketing, sale, and shipping of iron ore for the steel industry in South Africa. It operates through Products " Sishen Mine, Products " Kolomela Mine, Services " Logistics, and Services " Shipping Operations segments. The company produces iron ore at its flagship Sishen mine located near the town of Kathu in the Northern Cape province; and its Kolomela mine located near Postmasburg in the Northern Cape province. It is also involved in the operation of a port in Saldanha Bay in the Western Cape province; and provision of iron ore logistics services through rail, as well as shipping services. The company exports its products to China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, rest of Africa, and rest of the Americas. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Kumba Iron Ore Limited is a subsidiary of Anglo South Africa (Pty) Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kumba Iron Ore Ltd PK reported revenue of 66.8B ZAR in FY2025 versus 102B ZAR in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was 13.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIROY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and ...
- Kumba Iron Ore Ltd (KIROY) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and ...
- Kumba Iron Ore's (JSE:KIO) five-year earnings growth trails the shareholder returns
- Kumba Iron Ore (JSE:KIO) May Have Issues Allocating Its Capital
Peer Group
Steel · 398 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.60 | €46.04 | −29% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $234.67 | $127.14 | −46% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.80 | ₹145.39 | −22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
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