Samsara Inc (IOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $21.5B · ISIN US79589L1061
What is Samsara Inc really worth?
Samsara Inc
IOT · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 655% above our fair value of $5.13.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $8.70 – $60.96 · fair‑value band $3.72 – $6.54 · the $38.75 price screens above the $5.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Samsara Inc (IOT) currently trades at $38.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.13, implying the stock looks roughly 655.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $11.29 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $38.75 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.66, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Samsara Inc generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of −0.6%. Revenue grew 28.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $246M. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.72 (bear case) to $6.54 (bull case); at $38.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −87%, IOT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($11.29) versus Asset-Based ($1.66). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Samsara Inc. provides solutions to connect physical operations data to its connected operations platform in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Samsara Inc. provides solutions to connect physical operations data to its connected operations platform in the United States and internationally. The company's Connected Operations Platform includes Data Platform, which ingests, aggregates, and enriches data from its IoT devices and a growing ecosystem of connected assets and third-party systems, and which has embedded capabilities for AI, workflows and analytics, alerts, API connections, and data security and privacy. Its applications include video-based safety; and telematics, which provides visibility into real-time vehicle location and diagnostics with GPS tracking, routing and dispatch, fuel management, driver recognition, electric vehicle usage and charge planning, preventative maintenance, and insights to manage fuel and energy costs. The company also provides site visibility that provides remote visibility into sites to enhance onsite security, safety, and incident response times. It serves transportation, construction, wholesale and retail trade, field services, logistics, manufacturing, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, food and beverage, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Samsara Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $428M in FY2022, a compound +39.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.1M in FY2026.
IOT screens 655% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- IOT Q2 Deep Dive: Large Customer Expansion and AI-Powered Product Adoption Drive Momentum
- Samsara Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y
- Biggest stock movers Friday: IOT, LULU, DSS and more
- Samsara outlines FY 2027 revenue of $2.043B-$2.047B while targeting 21% non-GAAP operating margin
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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