Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.7B · ISIN US40145W1018
What is Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. really worth?
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.
GRDN · US
A solid business, but trading 146% above our fair value of $16.33.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (23 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
23‑month range $16.00 – $43.83 · fair‑value band $12.25 – $21.85 · the $40.13 price screens above the $16.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. (GRDN) currently trades at $40.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.33, implying the stock looks roughly 145.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.31 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $40.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.18, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $28.5M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.25 (bear case) to $21.85 (bull case); at $40.13, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 108% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −59%, GRDN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5684 per share, which is 3.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($26.31) versus Asset-Based ($2.18). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States.
Full company description
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc., a pharmacy service company, provides a suite of technology-enabled services to help residents of long-term health care facilities (LTCFs) in the United States. The company's individualized clinical, drug dispensing, and administration capabilities are used to serve the needs of residents in lower acuity LTCFs, such as assisted living facilities, behavioral health facilities, and group homes. Its Guardian Compass includes dashboards created using data from its data warehouse to help its local pharmacies plan, track, and optimize their business operations; GuardianShield Programs for LTCFs; Order Entry QA Analyzer, which utilizes real-time rules- engine technology to examine prescriptions and detect omissions and/or errors before they become a customer service problem; and Medication Spend Analyzer to break down the monthly drug spending for each of the LTCFs. Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $792M in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $49.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.8%/yr from FY2021.
GRDN screens 146% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 256 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $417.82 | $547.67 | +31% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €45.25 | €32.15 | −29% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 241.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | −53% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | −46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.80 | $330.25 | +24% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $180.68 | $186.49 | +3% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,818 | ₹2,955 | −66% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FME | €39.92 | €71.28 | +79% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.25 | ¥7.67 | −7% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,005 | ₹284.87 | −72% |
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