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Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · BR · Market cap R$12.5B (≈ $2.4B) · ISIN BRGOAUACNOR1

What is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A really worth?

MG Metalurgica Gerdau S.A GOAU3 · SA
PriceR$9.95
Fair ValueR$6.85
Upside−31.1%
Quality36/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 45% above our fair value of R$6.85.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.8% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100

For context

·3.35% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range R$4.50 – R$7.50

Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price −4.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$7.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$918,557 R$3.74 Fair Value R$6.85 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$3.74 – R$918,557 · fair‑value band R$4.50 – R$7.50 · the R$9.95 price screens above the R$6.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.

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Analysis

Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) currently trades at R$9.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.85, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$31.37 per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the R$9.95 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$2.04, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Metalurgica Gerdau S.A generated revenue of R$69.2B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at R$10.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$4.50 (bear case) to R$7.50 (bull case); at R$9.95, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −31%, GOAU3 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$0.0656 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV R$28.38 R$34.03 R$38.97 74
Residual Income R$10.39 R$10.12 R$8.39 74
FCF DCF R$3.28 R$7.82 R$14.60 73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$3.28 R$7.82 R$14.60 73
5Y Revenue Exit R$22.11 R$43.01 R$69.86 68
5Y EBITDA Exit R$28.38 R$54.54 R$84.97 71
5Y P/E Exit R$0.2300 R$2.76 R$5.33 62
10Y Revenue Exit R$13.93 R$31.37 R$54.95 61
10Y EBITDA Exit R$19.09 R$39.30 R$66.31 64
10Y P/E Exit R$1.27 R$3.68 R$6.46 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$2.44 R$6.97 R$9.18 63
Lynch FV R$1.43 R$2.04 R$2.65 59
PEG = 1.0 R$1.43 R$2.04 R$2.65 55
EPV R$28.38 R$34.03 R$38.97 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$8.63 R$17.95 R$28.48 64
DDM Multi-Stage R$8.63 R$13.75 R$18.84 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$4.58 R$6.11 R$7.63 63
P/S Multiple R$4.58 R$6.11 R$7.63 58
P/B Multiple R$4.58 R$6.11 R$7.63 55
EV/EBIT R$40.61 R$55.98 R$71.34 66
EV/EBITDA R$48.27 R$66.19 R$84.10 67
EV/Revenue R$34.46 R$51.59 R$68.71 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$7.21 R$9.66 R$14.42 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$3.47 R$7.55 R$13.31 72
Rev-Margin DCF R$22.11 R$42.57 R$65.29 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$10.39 R$10.12 R$8.39 74
ROIC Compounder R$30.42 R$39.63 R$50.30 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$3.76 R$5.37 R$6.98 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$31.37) versus Earnings-Based (R$2.04). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.4 as of Jul 19, 2026
P/S ratio 0.17 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) R$0.3700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.4
Dividend yield 3.3% payout 90.0%
Net margin 0.7% FY2025
Return on equity 3.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 16.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) R$69.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.8% 3y avg −5.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow R$1.0B FY2025
Net debt R$10.6B FY2025 · ≈ 10.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 38
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 1
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies long steel products in Brazil, the Americas, and internationally. The company offers rebars, profiles, wires, thick plates, hot-rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rod, structural profiles, and flat steel and iron ore, as well as bars, including special steels.

Full company description

Metalurgica Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces and supplies long steel products in Brazil, the Americas, and internationally. The company offers rebars, profiles, wires, thick plates, hot-rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rod, structural profiles, and flat steel and iron ore, as well as bars, including special steels. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A.was formerly known as METALÚRGICA HUGO GERDAU S.A and changed its name to Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. in June 1965. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Metalurgica Gerdau S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Indac - Indústria, Administração e Comércio S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Metalurgica Gerdau S.A reported revenue of R$69.9B in FY2025 versus R$78.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$476M in FY2025, compounding −44.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$69.9B
Latest YoY
+4.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.2%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in BRL) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.7% (−15.0 + 3.3)
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 R$78.3B
FY22 R$82.4B
FY23 R$68.9B
FY24 R$67.0B
FY25 R$69.9B
Net income −44.6%/yr
FY21 R$5.1B
FY22 R$3.7B
FY23 R$2.6B
FY24 R$1.5B
FY25 R$476M

GOAU3 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Metalurgica Gerdau S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GOAU3

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Steel · 398 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.69× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.57× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 12
FUTURE0 · sector 2
PAST12 · sector 16
HEALTH65 · sector 95
DIVIDEND67 · sector 49

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $250.50 $116.05 −54%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €64.60 €46.04 −29%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,296 ₹1,119 −14%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $234.67 $127.14 −46%
500228 500228 ₹1,292 ₹1,079 −16%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.80 ₹145.39 −22%
Reliance, Inc RS $387.59 $217.81 −44%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.91 ¥8.07 +37%
POSCO Holdings PKX $63.13 $85.21 +35%
Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,114 ₹429.44 −61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$6.85 versus a price of R$9.95, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GOAU3?
Our model-based fair value for Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is R$6.85 (as of Aug 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$9.95.
What is the quality score of GOAU3?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A (GOAU3)?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$69.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 28, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GOAU3?
The net profit margin of Metalurgica Gerdau S.A is about 0.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Metalurgica Gerdau S.A pay a dividend?
Metalurgica Gerdau S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.35% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 28, 2026).
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