Grafton Group (GFTU) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 1.9B GBX
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +14.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 30% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from £10.08 (bear) to £17.23 (bull), base £13.66. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £5.45 – £11.70 · fair‑value band £10.08 – £17.23 · the £10.48 price screens below the £13.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Grafton Group (GFTU) currently trades at £10.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £13.66, implying the stock looks roughly 30.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Grafton Group generated revenue of £2.5B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 10.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at £123M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £10.08 (bear case) to £17.23 (bull case); at £10.48, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at 30%, GFTU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£18.34) versus Dividend Discount (£4.81). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grafton Group plc distributes and sells building materials and construction related products in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, and Spain.
Full company description
Grafton Group plc distributes and sells building materials and construction related products in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, and Spain. The company provides tools, ironmongery and accessories; distributes materials and plant for mechanical services, heating, plumbing and air movement; and distributes workwear and personal protective equipment (PPE), tools, spare parts and accessories; air conditioning, ventilation, heating and refrigeration products under the Selco, Leyland SDM, Chadwicks, MacBlair, Isero, Polvo, Gunters en Meuser, TG Lynes, IKH, and Salvador Escoda brands. It also offers DIY products, paints, lighting, homestyle, housewares, bathroom products, and kitchens, as well as gardening and Christmas products under the Woodie's brand. Further, it manufactures and distributes dry mortars and wooden staircases and windows under the CPI Mortar and StairBox brands. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grafton Group reported revenue of £2.5B in FY2025 versus £2.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was £137M in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Industrial Distribution · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW | $1,305 | $613.88 | -53% |
| Fastenal Company FAST | $52.22 | $20.64 | -60% |
| Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG | $245.18 | $148.98 | -39% |
| WESCO International, Inc WCC | $364.60 | $213.01 | -42% |
| Watsco, Inc WSO | $309.41 | $268.10 | -13% |
| Toromont Industries Ltd TIH | C$218.77 | C$127.90 | -42% |
| Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT | $352.29 | $191.65 | -46% |
| Finning International Inc FTT | C$93.86 | C$76.38 | -19% |
| Addtech AB ADDTB | kr 344.00 | kr 156.35 | -55% |
| Core & Main, Inc CNM | $46.63 | $49.47 | +6% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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