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Grafton Group plc (GFTU) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 1.9B GBX · ISIN IE00B00MZ448

What is Grafton Group plc really worth?

GG Grafton Group plc GFTU · LSE
Price£10.07
Fair Value£13.66
Upside+35.6%
Quality69/100

A solid business, trading 26% below our fair value of £13.66.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.4% net margin
!Narrow moat 40/100

For context

·3.75% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range £10.08 – £17.23

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −2.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£11.70 £5.45 Fair Value £13.66 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £5.45 – £11.70 · fair‑value band £10.08 – £17.23 · the £10.07 price screens below the £13.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Grafton Group plc (GFTU) currently trades at £10.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £13.66, implying the stock looks roughly 26.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £18.34 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the £10.07 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £4.81, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grafton Group plc generated revenue of £2.5B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 10.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at £123M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £10.08 (bear case) to £17.23 (bull case); at £10.07, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 36%, GFTU screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.2450 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF £13.24 £19.09 £27.19 80
Growth DCF £13.24 £18.21 £24.60 79
Owner Earnings £14.16 £20.47 £29.21 77
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £13.24 £19.09 £27.19 80
Owner Earnings £14.16 £20.47 £29.21 77
5Y Revenue Exit £10.59 £15.29 £21.23 73
5Y EBITDA Exit £14.72 £23.20 £33.25 75
5Y P/E Exit £12.18 £18.34 £24.88 71
10Y Revenue Exit £11.33 £15.70 £21.55 67
10Y EBITDA Exit £13.96 £20.79 £30.13 68
10Y P/E Exit £12.47 £17.66 £24.15 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £4.81 £16.94 £22.79 64
Lynch FV £3.96 £5.66 £7.35 61
PEG = 1.0 £3.96 £5.66 £7.35 57
EPV £7.12 £7.88 £8.51 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £2.92 £5.26 £7.24 68
DDM Multi-Stage £2.92 £4.81 £5.62 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple £11.14 £14.85 £18.56 63
P/S Multiple £9.02 £12.02 £15.03 58
P/B Multiple £9.02 £12.02 £15.03 55
EV/EBIT £12.30 £15.87 £19.45 66
EV/EBITDA £17.40 £22.67 £27.94 67
EV/Revenue £9.23 £12.51 £15.79 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £4.27 £5.72 £8.54 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £13.24 £18.21 £24.60 79
Rev-Margin DCF £10.59 £15.37 £21.08 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income £6.78 £7.16 £7.62 76
ROIC Compounder £7.12 £7.88 £8.51 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £9.63 £13.75 £17.88 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£18.34) versus Dividend Discount (£4.81). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.8 as of Jun 3, 2026
P/S ratio 0.69 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) £0.7400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8
Dividend yield 3.8% payout 51.1%
Net margin 5.4% FY2025
Return on equity 8.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) £2.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.7% 3y avg +3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +8.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 232M GBX FY2025
Net debt 123M GBX FY2025 · ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Grafton Group plc distributes and sells building materials and construction related products in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, and Spain.

Full company description

Grafton Group plc distributes and sells building materials and construction related products in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland, and Spain. The company provides tools, ironmongery and accessories; distributes materials and plant for mechanical services, heating, plumbing and air movement; and distributes workwear and personal protective equipment (PPE), tools, spare parts and accessories; air conditioning, ventilation, heating and refrigeration products under the Selco, Leyland SDM, Chadwicks, MacBlair, Isero, Polvo, Gunters en Meuser, TG Lynes, IKH, and Salvador Escoda brands. It also offers DIY products, paints, lighting, homestyle, housewares, bathroom products, and kitchens, as well as gardening and Christmas products under the Woodie's brand. Further, it manufactures and distributes dry mortars and wooden staircases and windows under the CPI Mortar and StairBox brands. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grafton Group plc reported revenue of £2.5B in FY2025 versus £2.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was £137M in FY2025, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£2.5B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+10.8% (7.0 + 3.8)
Revenue +4.5%/yr
FY21 £2.1B
FY22 £2.3B
FY23 £2.3B
FY24 £2.3B
FY25 £2.5B
Net income −9.9%/yr
FY21 £207M
FY22 £209M
FY23 £149M
FY24 £122M
FY25 £137M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.2 %

of which total revenue +0.5 % · buybacks/dilution +1.7 %

EBIT margin +3.2 %
Tax rate +0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Grafton Group plc · Fair Value
£13.66 +26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grafton Group plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GFTU

Peer Group

Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +36% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.53× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.00× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 10.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE81 · sector 33
FUTURE54 · sector 18
PAST34 · sector 35
HEALTH94 · sector 91
DIVIDEND75 · sector 37

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW $1,306 $613.88 −53%
Fastenal Company FAST $51.14 $20.64 −60%
Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG $245.18 $148.98 −39%
WESCO International, Inc WCC $347.60 $213.01 −39%
Watsco, Inc WSO $313.05 $251.37 −20%
Toromont Industries Ltd TIH C$199.59 C$127.90 −36%
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT $319.11 $191.65 −40%
Finning International Inc FTT C$93.86 C$76.38 −19%
Addtech AB ADDTB kr 344.00 kr 156.35 −55%
Core & Main, Inc CNM $45.45 $49.47 +9%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grafton Group plc (GFTU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £13.66 versus a price of £10.07, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GFTU?
Our model-based fair value for Grafton Group plc is £13.66 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £10.07.
What is the quality score of GFTU?
Grafton Group plc has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grafton Group plc (GFTU)?
Grafton Group plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GFTU?
The net profit margin of Grafton Group plc is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grafton Group plc pay a dividend?
Grafton Group plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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