Firstrand Ltd (FSR) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 547B ZAC · ISIN ZAE000066304
What is Firstrand Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 23% above our fair value of R78.80.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
Share price −3.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R38.59 – R101.51 · fair‑value band R59.11 – R98.51 · the R97.23 price screens above the R78.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Firstrand Ltd (FSR) currently trades at R97.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R78.80, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R79.96 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the R97.23 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R28.22, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Firstrand Ltd generated revenue of 139B ZAR at a net margin of 32.8%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. Net debt stands at 111B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R59.11 (bear case) to R98.51 (bull case); at R97.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −19%, FSR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.80 ZAR per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R79.96) versus Asset-Based (R28.22). Highest evidence: DDM Multi-Stage (66).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments.
Full company description
FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments. The company offers deposits and savings products; personal loans; and asset and invoice finance, as well as SME commercial, residential, and buy-to-let mortgages. It also provides life and short-term insurance products; and vehicle finance, instalment credit and fleet management, and corporate and investment banking services. In addition, the company offers asset management, as well as vehicle-related insurance services. Further, it provides franchise advisory, market risk management, capital market flow, and trading and structuring services. It serves retail and public sector customers, small and medium-sized enterprises, businesses, agricultural industry, medium corporates, and institutions. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Firstrand Ltd reported revenue of 270B ZAR in FY2025 versus 159B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was 43.5B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FSR screens 23% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
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