FirstRand Limited (FSR) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 547B ZAC
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from R101.22 to R78.80 (−22.1%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +2.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R37.13 – R101.51 · fair‑value band R59.11 – R98.51 · the R99.21 price screens above the R78.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
FirstRand Limited (FSR) currently trades at R99.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R78.80, implying the stock looks roughly 20.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, FirstRand Limited generated revenue of 139B ZAR at a net margin of 32.8%. Revenue grew 9.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. Net debt stands at 111B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R59.11 (bear case) to R98.51 (bull case); at R99.21, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -15% fair-value upside, at -21%, FSR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R79.96) versus Asset-Based (R28.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments.
Full company description
FirstRand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides transactional, lending, investment, and insurance products and services in South Africa, rest of Africa, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates in Retail and Commercial, and Corporate and Institutional segments. The company offers deposits and savings products; personal loans; and asset and invoice finance, as well as SME commercial, residential, and buy-to-let mortgages. It also provides life and short-term insurance products; and vehicle finance, instalment credit and fleet management, and corporate and investment banking services. In addition, the company offers asset management, as well as vehicle-related insurance services. Further, it provides franchise advisory, market risk management, capital market flow, and trading and structuring services. It serves retail and public sector customers, small and medium-sized enterprises, businesses, agricultural industry, medium corporates, and institutions. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
FirstRand Limited reported revenue of R270B in FY2025 versus R159B in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was R43.5B in FY2025, compounding +12.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FSR screens 21% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $365.18 | $217.97 | -40% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $64.81 | $50.87 | -22% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.24 | ¥18.21 | +78% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.52 | ¥14.44 | +92% |
| HSBC Holdings HBCN | 1,610 MXN | 1,364 MXN | -15% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.56 | ¥12.94 | +97% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.83 | ¥11.24 | +93% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 55.29 PLN | 31.78 PLN | -43% |
| UBS Group UBSN | 939.75 MXN | 565.49 MXN | -40% |
| Barclays PLC BCSN | 475.00 MXN | 332.60 MXN | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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