ERG S.p.A (ERG) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · IT · Market cap €3.3B · ISIN IT0001157020
What is ERG S.p.A really worth?
A solid business, but trading 193% above our fair value of €7.60.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +3.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €14.62 – €29.83 · fair‑value band €6.03 – €9.50 · the €22.28 price screens above the €7.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ERG S.p.A (ERG) currently trades at €22.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.60, implying the stock looks roughly 193.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €9.97 per share, and 1 of the 21 models we run sit above the €22.28 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €3.32, and 20 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ERG S.p.A generated revenue of €776M at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 14.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. Net debt stands at €2.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €6.03 (bear case) to €9.50 (bull case); at €22.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −66%, ERG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€9.97) versus Growth DCF (€3.32). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants.
Full company description
ERG S.p.A., through its subsidiaries, produces energy through renewable sources in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Bulgaria, Sweden, Romania, the United States of America, and Spain. It also generates electricity through wind, solar, hydroelectric, and thermoelectric power plants, as well as natural gas cogeneration plants. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Genoa, Italy. ERG S.p.A. operates as a subsidiary of Sq Renewables S.p.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ERG S.p.A reported revenue of €744M in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was €65.0M in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −19.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ERG screens 193% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.96 | ¥25.13 | −10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 139.25 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.79 | ¥5.57 | −43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.49 | −12% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €57.00 | €66.19 | +16% |
| BEP BEP | $31.27 | $70.40 | +125% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$45.05 | C$42.83 | −5% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.80 | €13.55 | −32% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | −53% |
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