Dropbox Inc (DBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.9B · ISIN US26210C1045
What is Dropbox Inc really worth?
Dropbox Inc
DBX · US
A strong business, trading 16% below our fair value of $42.56.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $77.38 to $42.56 (−45.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($29.27 to $55.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.97 – $35.93 · fair‑value band $29.27 – $55.85 · the $35.70 price screens below the $42.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Dropbox Inc (DBX) currently trades at $35.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.56, implying the stock looks roughly 16.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $92.26 per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the $35.70 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $28.57, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dropbox Inc generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 18.7%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $29.27 (bear case) to $55.85 (bull case); at $35.70, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 19%, DBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.24 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.26) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features.
Full company description
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features. Its platform consists of various elements, such as unified home for content, global sharing network, and product experiences and integrations. The company serves customers in the professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dropbox Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $508M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Dropbox Stock a Buy as Revenue Grows Under 1% and Insiders Dispose of Shares?
- A Dropbox Executive Sold $1 Million in Stock Last Week. Here's What Long-Term Investors Should Know
- Dropbox's Chief Accounting Officer Had 5,854 Shares Withheld. Here's What Investors Should Know
- Dropbox's CFO Filed Days After Raising Guidance. What Should Investors Make of the Sequence?
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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