Coles Group Ltd (COL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$31.6B (≈ $22.8B) · ISIN AU0000030678
What is Coles Group Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 49% above our fair value of A$15.86.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price −2.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$21.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$10.24 to A$21.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.34 – A$24.41 · fair‑value band A$10.24 – A$21.09 · the A$23.68 price screens above the A$15.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Coles Group Ltd (COL) currently trades at A$23.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$15.86, implying the stock looks roughly 49.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$16.77 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$23.68 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.90, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Coles Group Ltd generated revenue of A$45.1B at a net margin of 2.3%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.5%. Net debt stands at A$9.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$10.24 (bear case) to A$21.09 (bull case); at A$23.68, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −33%, COL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.0300 per share, which is 0.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$16.77) versus Asset-Based (A$1.90). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and …
Full company description
Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations. Its Coles Financial Services provides insurance, credit cards, and personal loans to Australian families. The company is also involved in the retailing of liquor through its various stores under the Liquorland, First Choice Liquor Market, and Vintage Cellars brand names, as well as retail media services through its store network and online platforms. In addition, it operates as flybuys loyalty program. The company was formerly known as Coles Myer Ltd. and changed its name to Coles Group Limited in November 2006. Coles Group Limited was founded in 1914 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Coles Group Ltd reported revenue of A$44.4B in FY2025 versus A$39.0B in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.8%/yr from FY2021.
COL screens 49% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$60.79 | C$44.44 | −27% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €30.57 | €53.50 | +75% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $57.72 | $28.19 | −51% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$40.32 | A$8.33 | −79% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$98.50 | C$147.70 | +50% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$88.26 | C$94.01 | +7% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.63 | €11.19 | −28% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.81 SGD | 2.35 SGD | +30% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 418.25 TRY | 267.12 TRY | −36% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOA | €21.25 | €11.62 | −45% |
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