Challenger Ltd (CGF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$7.3B (≈ $5.2B) · ISIN AU000000CGF5
What is Challenger Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 158% above our fair value of A$3.87.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +0.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.42 – A$10.75 · fair‑value band A$2.90 – A$4.84 · the A$9.97 price screens above the A$3.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Challenger Ltd (CGF) currently trades at A$9.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.87, implying the stock looks roughly 157.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$4.41 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$9.97 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$3.67, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Challenger Ltd generated revenue of A$2.8B at a net margin of 16.4%. Revenue declined 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at A$7.6B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.90 (bear case) to A$4.84 (bull case); at A$9.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −61%, CGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.3150 per share, which is 8.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$4.41) versus Multiples (A$3.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Challenger Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The company also provides retirement services to its clients. It manages equity mutual funds. The firm invests into the public equity markets across the world. Challenger Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Australia, Asia and United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Challenger Ltd reported revenue of A$3.1B in FY2025 versus A$3.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$192M in FY2025, compounding −24.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution −2.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CGF screens 158% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Challenger Ltd (ASX:CGF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Annuity Sales and Strategic ...
- Challenger Full Year 2025 Earnings: EPS Misses Expectations
- Challenger First Half 2025 Earnings: Misses Expectations
- Challenger Ltd (ASX:CGF) (H1 2025) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Growth in Earnings and ...
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.03 | ¥49.98 | +35% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥55.82 | ¥84.72 | +52% |
| AIA Group 1299 | HK$73.00 | HK$33.57 | −54% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation MFC | C$59.80 | C$38.80 | −35% |
| Aflac Incorporated AFL | $116.52 | $74.34 | −36% |
| Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO | C$90.25 | C$39.53 | −56% |
| MetLife, Inc MET | $96.51 | $68.27 | −29% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | −5% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.20 | ¥57.51 | +90% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 301,000 KRW | 191,293 KRW | −36% |
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