Challenger Limited (CGF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$7.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$3.67 to A$3.87 (+5.4%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price −6.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$4.11 – A$10.75 · fair‑value band A$2.90 – A$4.84 · the A$9.82 price screens above the A$3.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Challenger Limited (CGF) currently trades at A$9.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.87, implying the stock looks roughly 60.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Challenger Limited generated revenue of A$2.8B at a net margin of 16.4%. Revenue declined 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. Net debt stands at A$7.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.90 (bear case) to A$4.84 (bull case); at A$9.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at -61%, CGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$4.41) versus Multiples (A$3.67). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Challenger Limited is a publicly owned investment manager. The company also provides retirement services to its clients. It manages equity mutual funds. The firm invests into the public equity markets across the world. Challenger Limited was founded in 1985 and is based in Australia, Asia and United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Challenger Limited reported revenue of A$3.1B in FY2025 versus A$3.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$192M in FY2025, compounding −24.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CGF screens 61% overvalued. Compare with China Life Insurance Company →
Peer Group
Insurance - Life · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Life Insurance Company 601628 | ¥37.33 | ¥49.98 | +34% |
| Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 | ¥52.60 | ¥84.72 | +61% |
| Manulife Financial Corporation 0945 | HK$343.40 | HK$143.17 | -58% |
| Life Insurance Corporation LICI | ₹412.15 | ₹392.93 | -5% |
| Samsung Life Insurance Co 032830 | 302,500 KRW | 191,293 KRW | -37% |
| China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co 601601 | ¥30.48 | ¥57.51 | +89% |
| Prudential plc PUKN | 545.00 MXN | 499.36 MXN | -8% |
| New China Life Insurance Company 601336 | ¥58.83 | ¥99.92 | +70% |
| SBI Life Insurance Company SBILIFE | ₹1,830 | ₹293.11 | -84% |
| Cathay Financial Holding 2882B | 59.00 TWD | 107.71 TWD | +83% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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