Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · AU · Market cap A$7.4B (≈ $5.4B) · ISIN NZCENE0001S6
What is Contact Energy Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 132% above our fair value of A$3.05.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$3.08 to A$3.05 (−1.0%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price −7.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$2.18 to A$5.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.07 – A$8.84 · fair‑value band A$2.18 – A$5.65 · the A$7.09 price screens above the A$3.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) currently trades at A$7.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.05, implying the stock looks roughly 132.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.99 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$7.09 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.86, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Contact Energy Ltd generated revenue of A$3.3B at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.1%. Net debt stands at A$1.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.18 (bear case) to A$5.65 (bull case); at A$7.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −57%, CEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly A$0.3358 per share, which is 11.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$5.99) versus Asset-Based (A$1.86). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Contact Energy Limited generates and sells electricity and natural gas in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments.
Full company description
Contact Energy Limited generates and sells electricity and natural gas in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments. The company involved in selling electricity to the wholesale electricity market, to commercial and industrial customers; and delivering electricity, natural gas, broadband, and other products and services to mass market customers. It also provides bottled gas products. In addition, the company owns and operates hydro, geothermal, and thermal power stations. Contact Energy Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Contact Energy Ltd reported revenue of 3.4B NZD in FY2025 versus 2.6B NZD in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 331M NZD in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CEN screens 132% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.96 | ¥25.13 | −10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 139.25 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.79 | ¥5.57 | −43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.49 | −12% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €57.00 | €66.19 | +16% |
| BEP BEP | $31.27 | $70.40 | +125% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$45.05 | C$42.83 | −5% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.80 | €13.55 | −32% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | −53% |
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