Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$14.2B (≈ $10.2B) · ISIN AU000000BSL0
What is Bluescope Steel Ltd really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 393% above our fair value of A$6.50.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Sep 5, 2026, revised from A$3.25 to A$6.50 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$8.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$13.05 – A$35.23 · fair‑value band A$4.88 – A$8.12 · the A$32.05 price screens above the A$6.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Bluescope Steel Ltd (BSL) currently trades at A$32.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.50, implying the stock looks roughly 393.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of A$16.31 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the A$32.05 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$1.09, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bluescope Steel Ltd generated revenue of A$16.6B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 4.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at A$28.4M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.88 (bear case) to A$8.12 (bull case); at A$32.05, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −80%, BSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$16.31) versus Earnings-Based (A$1.09). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America.
Full company description
BlueScope Steel Limited engages in the production and marketing of metal-coated and painted steel building products in Australia, New Zealand, Asia, and North America. The company operates through five segments: Australian Steel Products, North Star BlueScope Steel, Buildings and Coated Products North America, Coated Products Asia, and New Zealand & Pacific Islands. It offers coated and painted flat steel products, including zinc/aluminium alloy coated steel; and galvanized and zinc/aluminium alloy coated pre-painted steel, as well as manufactures pipes and tubes. The company is also involved in the supply of hot rolled coils; the provision of engineered building solutions, such as coil paintings; and the development of industrial properties, primarily warehouses and distribution centres. In addition, it provides metal coating, painting, and steel building solutions; and steel slabs, billets, plates, cold-rolled coils, reinforcing coils, rods, wires, and bars, as well as value-added coated and painted steel solutions, as well as operates ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal recyclers. Further, the company offers its products under the COLORBOND, COLORSTEEL, TRUECORE, ZINCALUME, TRU-SPEC, LYSAGHT, FIELDERS, Orrcon Steel, BUTLER, and VARCO PRUDEN brand names for residential and non-residential building, construction, automotive, manufacturing, infrastructure, packaging, transport, agriculture, and mining industries. It also exports its products. The company was formerly known as BHP Steel Limited and changed its name to BlueScope Steel Limited in November 2003. BlueScope Steel Limited was founded in 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bluescope Steel Ltd reported revenue of A$16.3B in FY2025 versus A$12.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$83.8M in FY2025, compounding −48.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.2 % · buybacks/dilution +3.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BSL screens 393% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- US Data-Center Demand Helps Boost Steelmaker BlueScope’s Profit
- Steel Dynamics Weighs BlueScope Deal As New Aluminum Assets Come Online
- BlueScope Says $11 Billion Steel Dynamics, SGH Takeover Offer Insufficient
- Steel Dynamics Bid For BlueScope US Unit Puts Valuation In Focus
Peer Group
Steel · 398 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $250.50 | $116.05 | −54% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.60 | €46.04 | −29% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | −14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $234.67 | $127.14 | −46% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | −16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.80 | ₹145.39 | −22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $387.59 | $217.81 | −44% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $63.13 | $85.21 | +35% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | −61% |
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