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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · GB · Market cap 110B GBX

BP BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP-A · LSE
Price£1.42
Fair Value£0.8200
Upside-42.1%
Quality57/100
Watch BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
0.24% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: Medium Range £0.8200 – £0.8200 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £0.4200 to £0.8200 (+95.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.8200). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£1.76 £1.19 Fair Value £0.8200 Nov 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.19 – £1.76 · the £1.42 price screens above the £0.8200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) currently trades at £1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.8200, implying the stock looks roughly 42.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, generated revenue of £193B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at £36.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -42%, BP-A screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £5.21 £7.56 £10.74 80
Residual Income £1.77 £1.64 £1.09 76
Rev-Margin DCF £5.44 £8.84 £12.42 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £5.02 £7.52 £11.04 38
Owner Earnings £1.73 £2.84 £4.39 31
5Y Revenue Exit £5.44 £8.78 £12.87 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £5.45 £8.80 £12.50 41
5Y P/E Exit £1.28 £1.47 £1.61 38
10Y Revenue Exit £5.03 £7.97 £11.56 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £5.24 £7.99 £11.29 37
10Y P/E Exit £2.64 £3.06 £3.43 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.0200 £0.0400 £0.0500 54
PEG = 1.0 £0.0100 £0.0100 £0.0100 46
EPV £3.39 £4.10 £4.73 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £2.32 £3.66 £5.14 70
DDM Multi-Stage £2.32 £3.36 £4.53 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £0.0300 £0.0400 £0.0500 63
P/S Multiple £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 58
P/B Multiple £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 55
EV/EBIT £4.90 £6.83 £8.76 53
EV/EBITDA £6.66 £9.18 £11.70 54
EV/Revenue £6.13 £9.15 £12.16 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.33 £1.78 £2.65 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £5.21 £7.56 £10.74 80
Rev-Margin DCF £5.44 £8.84 £12.42 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £1.77 £1.64 £1.09 76
ROIC Compounder £3.48 £4.45 £5.53 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £0.0200 £0.0300 £0.0400 68

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (£7.56) versus Growth Earnings (£0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 193B GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.6%
Net margin 1.7%
Return on equity 5.8%
Free cash flow 11.3B GBX FY2025
Operating margin 15.5%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) £-71.50
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +475%
Net debt 36.0B GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.

Full company description

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported revenue of £189B in FY2025 versus £184B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was £55.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£189B
Latest YoY
+2.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Revenue +0.7%/yr
FY21 £184B
FY22 £172B
FY23 £248B
FY24 £185B
FY25 £189B
Net income
FY21 −£11.3B
FY22 −£17.5B
FY23 £26.1B
FY24 £383M
FY25 £55.0M

BP-A screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →

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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, · Fair Value
£0.8200 −42%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BP-A

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −42% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.03× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.79× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.77× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 13.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 13
FUTURE 58 · sector 12
PAST 23 · sector 43
HEALTH 49 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 5 · sector 79

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $159.80 $88.98 -44%
Chevron Corporation CHEV C$23.84 C$8.30 -65%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥10.66 ¥15.47 +45%
Shell plc SHELL €39.04 €46.09 +18%
TotalEnergies SE TTE C$14.29 C$8.20 -43%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PBRN 314.50 MXN 1,240 MXN +294%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.05 ¥3.67 -27%
Equinor ASA EQNR $40.93 $34.53 -16%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$88.25 C$59.11 -33%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO C$182.00 C$94.61 -48%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.8200 versus a price of £1.42, about −42% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BP-A?
Our model-based fair value for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is £0.8200 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £1.42.
What is the quality score of BP-A?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A)?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £193B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BP-A?
The net profit margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is about 1.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, pay a dividend?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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