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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · GB · Market cap 110B GBX · ISIN GB0001385250

What is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, really worth?

BP BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP-A · LSE
Price£1.40
Fair Value£0.6000
Upside−57.1%
Quality57/100

A solid business, but trading 133% above our fair value of £0.6000.

Watch BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card. Watch for free

Strengths

Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 23 out of 100

For context

·5.71% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range £0.6000 – £0.6000

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from £0.3000 to £0.6000 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.6000). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£1.76 £1.19 Fair Value £0.6000 Dec 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.19 – £1.76 · the £1.40 price screens above the £0.6000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

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Analysis

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) currently trades at £1.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.6000, implying the stock looks roughly 133.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of £3.36 per share, and 19 of the 25 models we run sit above the £1.40 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £1.64, and 6 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, generated revenue of $193B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $36.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −57%, BP-A screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence £5.02 £7.52 £11.04 80
Growth DCF £5.21 £7.56 £10.74 78
Residual Income £1.77 £1.64 £1.09 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence £5.02 £7.52 £11.04 80
Owner Earnings £1.73 £2.84 £4.39 75
5Y Revenue Exit £5.44 £8.78 £12.87 72
5Y EBITDA Exit £5.45 £8.80 £12.50 75
5Y P/E Exit £1.28 £1.47 £1.61 72
10Y Revenue Exit £5.03 £7.97 £11.56 66
10Y EBITDA Exit £5.24 £7.99 £11.29 68
10Y P/E Exit £2.64 £3.06 £3.43 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.0200 £0.0400 £0.0500 66
PEG = 1.0 £0.0100 £0.0100 £0.0100 57
EPV £3.39 £4.10 £4.73 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £2.32 £3.66 £5.14 68
DDM Multi-Stage £2.32 £3.36 £4.53 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple £0.0300 £0.0400 £0.0500 63
P/S Multiple £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 58
P/B Multiple £0.0400 £0.0500 £0.0600 55
EV/EBIT £4.90 £6.83 £8.76 66
EV/EBITDA £6.66 £9.18 £11.70 67
EV/Revenue £6.13 £9.15 £12.16 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.33 £1.78 £2.65 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £5.21 £7.56 £10.74 78
Rev-Margin DCF £5.44 £8.84 £12.42 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income £1.77 £1.64 £1.09 76
ROIC Compounder £3.48 £4.45 £5.53 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £0.0200 £0.0300 £0.0400 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (£7.56) versus Growth Earnings (£0.0300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.57 TTM
EPS (TTM) £−71.50
Dividend yield 5.7%
Net margin 0.0% FY2025
Return on equity 5.8% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 15.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $193B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.6% 3y avg +3.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +475%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $11.3B FY2025
Net debt $36.0B FY2025 · ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.

Full company description

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $184B in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$189B
Latest YoY
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+22.5% (16.8 + 5.7)
Revenue +0.7%/yr
FY21 $184B
FY22 $172B
FY23 $248B
FY24 $185B
FY25 $189B
Net income
FY21 −$11.3B
FY22 −$17.5B
FY23 $26.1B
FY24 $383M
FY25 $55.0M

BP-A screens 133% overvalued. Compare with Exxon Mobil Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BP-A

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −57% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Above median
Revenue growth 12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.03× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.80× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.77× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 13.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 5
FUTURE58 · sector 12
PAST23 · sector 43
HEALTH49 · sector 86
DIVIDEND100 · sector 74

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $156.44 $88.98 −43%
Chevron Corporation CVX $201.86 $90.66 −55%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.23 ¥15.47 +38%
Shell plc SHELL €40.28 €39.46 −2%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.11 €2.03 −71%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.6000 versus a price of £1.40, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BP-A?
Our model-based fair value for BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is £0.6000 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £1.40.
What is the quality score of BP-A?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, (BP-A)?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BP-A?
The net profit margin of BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, is about 1.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, pay a dividend?
BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.71% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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