Box Inc (BOX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $4.2B · ISIN US10316T1043
What is Box Inc really worth?
Box Inc
BOX · US
A solid business, but trading 246% above our fair value of $10.40.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +13.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($6.63 to $14.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.37 – $38.55 · fair‑value band $6.63 – $14.17 · the $35.96 price screens above the $10.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Box Inc (BOX) currently trades at $35.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.40, implying the stock looks roughly 245.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.35 per share, and 3 of the 23 models we run sit above the $35.96 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.64, and 20 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Box Inc generated revenue of $676M at a net margin of −19.8%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $649M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 56.2. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.63 (bear case) to $14.17 (bull case); at $35.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −71%, BOX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3805 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.35) versus Dividend Discount ($1.64). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
Full company description
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage cloud content from anywhere and on any device in the United States, Poland, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to work with their content as they need from secure external collaboration, workspaces to e-signature processes, and content workflows improving employee productivity and accelerating business processes. It offers web, mobile, and desktop applications of its solutions on a platform, as well as the ability to develop custom applications. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Box Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $874M in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2026.
BOX screens 246% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Box (BOX) Is Up 5.6% After Raising 2026 Outlook On AI-Driven Enterprise Advanced Momentum
- Why Box Stock Ticked Higher on Wednesday
- Box to Present at Investor Conference
- Box's Growth Momentum Builds on AI Demand, UBS Says
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $480.35 | $365.74 | −24% |
| Oracle Corporation ORCL | $151.94 | $117.84 | −22% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $166.00 | $61.46 | −63% |
| Synopsys, Inc SNPS | $442.61 | $101.19 | −77% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | −36% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $105.26 | $71.79 | −32% |
| NetApp, Inc NTAP | $190.64 | $154.83 | −19% |
| Adyen N.V ADYEN | €1,007 | €707.53 | −30% |
| MongoDB, Inc MDB | $440.58 | $93.91 | −79% |
| Okta, Inc OKTA | $166.23 | $30.50 | −82% |
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