Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$120B (≈ $23.5B) · ISIN BRAXIAACNOR0
What is Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás really worth?
A solid business, but trading 41% above our fair value of R$39.58.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +4.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$52.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (R$23.94 to R$52.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$24.88 – R$67.15 · fair‑value band R$23.94 – R$52.89 · the R$55.75 price screens above the R$39.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) currently trades at R$55.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$39.58, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$77.80 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$55.75 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$15.90, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás generated revenue of R$43.6B at a net margin of 21.9%. Revenue grew 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at R$60.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$23.94 (bear case) to R$52.89 (bull case); at R$55.75, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −29%, AXIA3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$2.98 per share, which is 7.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$77.80) versus Earnings-Based (R$15.90). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants.
Full company description
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 43,072.7 MW; 798.7 MW wind power plants; and 67,030.74 km of transmission lines. The company was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás reported revenue of R$41.3B in FY2025 versus R$37.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$6.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
AXIA3 screens 41% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.96 | ¥25.13 | −10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 139.25 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.79 | ¥5.57 | −43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.49 | −12% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €57.00 | €66.19 | +16% |
| BEP BEP | $31.27 | $70.40 | +125% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$45.05 | C$42.83 | −5% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.80 | €13.55 | −32% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | −53% |
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